Consumer confidence and home price data out today support my contention that Oil is choking the living snot out of the U.S. economy.
This does not mean that Oil prices can't come in... if that happens that would lend a great deal of support to what the fed is doing... but think about that for a sec... Oil get s cheaper in $$ printed up from thin air? Anything can happen... I just find it hard to come around to that way of thinking.
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Every market in the U.S., but especially the thinner markets, are under the control of the 1,000 biggest hedge funds. My bet is they are behind Silver's recent run up... they are buying to get the big print on 12/31 and with it, a big increase in their performance allocation (their cut of the profits)... if I am correct, look for a very tough Q1 2011 for Silver... No opinion on Gold at the moment and at these prices.
I feel the same about Nat Gas as I do about Silver, but in reverse... between the tax loss selling in UNG and the depressed futures market, my bet is Nat Gas has a pretty good Q1 2011. If not, I am going to sell every %#$^!! contract I have.
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OPEC says the market is "well supplied" with Oil. It always amazes me to see that. Of course the market is well supplied with $91.40 Oil.... there is a serious shortage of $80 Oil, and an overwhelming glut of $100 Oil at the moment... but nothing like the GLUT in disinformation and propaganda.
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