RBOB gasoline, that's the wholesale trading vehicle in the harbor, is $3.17 as I write this. Heating Oil in the harbor is $3.18. And this is the "Shoulder Period"!
Forget WTI. Products, such as gasoline and heating oil, far more likely trade off of Brent, as "products" are exported from Europe to the U.S. and delivered along the coast. Brent is $122 and front month WTI is just over $109. I would have thought we would have seen some demand destruction at this level... but I can't find any evidence of that. So I am still Long Oil.
How much higher will Oil go before it cinches down hard on demand? I don't know... I didn't think we would retest the 2008 highs just yet, but I am having a change of heart. Oil prices are not terribly elastic, and Libya's missing 1.2 million of exports has driven the market $25 higher (and that's not really true... the contango was very, very steep and Libya flattened it quite a bit... in reality Libya probably moved Oil $12 to $15 over the entire curve).
It is my opinion that there is no way to stop the demands of the Arab people. Ergo, there is likely more short term upside to Oil. At some point the U.S. and the West will have to go through another brutal contraction in order to ration Oil by price.
Peak Oil, with all its effects and consequences, is here.
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Peak Oil is here, and you can still enjoy your life!
My wife and I are planning to spend next winter in South or Central America. We will surf, hike volcanoes, fish, ride horses... for about 1/4 of what many of my friends in Boca Raton consider an acceptable monthly family budget.
Being frugal in the extreme has its rewards. Don't miss them. It does not have to be travel (I can work from anywhere), but to be rich in time is to be truly rich. Rich in money will end your life early - just look at Matt Simmons and Bruce Wasserstein, 2 very wealthy investment bankers that spent 1 too many days at the office and dropped dead in their early 60'swith ooddles of money in the bank - if you have work too hard for it.
Yes, you gotta work and save money, but you have to enjoy yourself and keep your health. Clear the decks of every repeating expense (monthly bills) and work to keep them low. You will love yourself for doing it.
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Its not often that I find myself on the same side as Slate magazine...
But WTF??!! The Right on the SCOTUS are completely out of bounds. As former prosecutors and government attorneys these Justices are far too sympathetic to prosecutors and other government thugs.
I am sickened by some of their recent decisions. We, as a people, are getting meaner, and meaner, and meaner... so too, it appears are the individuals that are sworn to protect the American People from unconstitutional and oppressive government.
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I know that may civil libertarians are bemoaning the fact that our cell phones are tracking our every move. Here is another way of looking at it:
Remember the Duke Lacrosse players falsely accused of rape (and, BTW, their accuser has just been arrested for attempted murder for stabbing her boyfriend... and this is only her most recent arrest)? The only reason the guys are not buried alive in prison IS THEIR CELL PHONES. Without the location data provided by their phones these guys would definitely have gone to trial, at great personal expense in stress and treasure, and at great risk of false conviction (partly because of that anger I spoke of earlier). Yes, your cell phone is tracking you.... it is also giving you the perfect alibi should you come under attack from a false accusation.
That I even feel in any way positive about being tracked says volumes about my respect and confidence in our law enforcement and justice system.
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Climate change is real. If you are a denier, its ok to come around. The data is simply overwhelming. The good news is that there is not enough Oil nor Coal to accomplish the projected damage... and there is nothing to be done with what has been done. Still, it is what it is.