As I said before, and I have no problem saying it again, I would rather slam my wedding tackle in a car door than buy California municipal bonds... California will absolutely, positively default in some shape or form... and a Federal bailout is not going to be forthcoming.
Well, MarketWatch's Brett Arrends took Mr. Whalen to task in this fantastic piece of statistical Horse Sh*#.
This is a prime example of why you cannot believe one f*&%ing word on the web, media, print media... without scrubbing the living h*ll out of it. Let's take it to task, shall we?
California’s a basket case? The state has one of the highest living standards in the country, yet over the past 10 years the economy has still grown much faster, per person, than the national average. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, it’s up 15% — compared to 8.9% for the U.S. overall.
It’s grown faster than low tax neighbors like Arizona, Utah or New Mexico. It’s grown three times faster than Texas.
And this was from 1999 through 2009: In other words from the peak of the dot-com years through the depths of the recession. It managed this growth despite the double blows of the tech and housing busts.
Most of the states that have grown faster than California during that time are farm states, riding an incredible boom in agriculture prices.
Fact.
Fact? Well, sort of.
Economic growth in Cal this decade was entirely population growth plus uncounted inflation.
Cal's 2000 population? 33,872,000. And in 2009? 36,662,000. Anybody care to guess at the population of illegal immigrants that WERE NOT COUNTED? Wanna bet it exceeds 10% of the population? And as we all know, most of that growth came in the past 10 years.
Hmmmm....
Population growth accounted for 9% of the "economic growth"Mr. Arrends speaks of.... more like 12% if I include my GUESS of the illegal population.
There were states, Connecticut and Rhode Island come to mind, that LOST population during the decade, and still showed "economic growth" (though it was entirely inflation and price appreciation of financial assets in NYC's financial services industry).
Sorry, Mr. Arrends, your assertions are FUBAR. Cal is in terrible shape, and it will eventually default (though they might call it something else), either on their bond OR on their pension and benefit liabilities.
All of your Leftist propaganda does not change the laws of mathematics, irrespective of how little work Chris Whalen did to back up his assertions. That California is in this position despite all of its natural advantages of weather AND geography is testament to how badly Liberal economic policies served the people.