In one of my recent posts I mentioned that although the Left got its head handed to it last tuesday they still DOMINATE the Political Science and Humanities departments of most of the establishment Northeastern private universities... and I mentioned that from those positions they were able to continue all manner of mischief...
So.... I get an email from a friend from my home town... a guy I went to high school with... I emailed him back to ask him if I could quote him here on my blog, to which he replied "OK by me."
Greg, What's up brother?
I try to read a few bits of your blog when I get the chance, and you have a pretty cool view on things. Granted, I'm not any type of analyst on markets or any of that ilk, but I find it all pretty damned interesting, I'm just a regular guy trying to get the bills paid.
I've been driving a limo for the past few months because nobody has the money to do any work on their homes, and I'm tired of dealing with deadbeat assh***s.
Anyway, I end up picking up a lot of ******* College faculty, and they're a bunch of lefty liberals. It was election night, and they were so wrapped up in the losses and talking all their planning for more liberal agenda at the school (liberals in training). Listening to them in the back seat made me want to spit nails in their eyes. These are some seriously scheming pre-planners. This is a liberal arts college, and it's like they want to groom students in college to fit their agenda....God they piss me off! No wonder this country is so screwed.
Hoping for a better tomorrow...I redacted the name of the institution to keep my friend out of the line of fire.
(Now, as you can tell, my friend is a no BS kind of guy... he comes from a very, very large (I think they were one of the few families in town that had more kids than us) working class Catholic family, served with distinction in the military, and wouldn't say "sh#!" if he had a mouthful. He does what he has to do to make a living in a crazy world. The folks in the back of that Limo can't stand people like him (and me).)
Anybody that would pay $50k per year to send their kid to a school like that for a humanities major and a cluster-f**king indoctrination deserves the outcome. Theses people exist and their agenda doesn't include a deep an d abiding respect for our nation's Constitution. More importantly, the rest of us need to put on our pointy toe boots so we can stomp these f*&%#ing cockroaches into oblivion in every corner we find them.
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The Federal Reserve has clearly decided to abandon the US$ in favor of the banking industry and housing prices. Never mind that cheaper housing is a windfall for young families and working class folks... nor that inflation helps the "haves" to keep having while keeping the "have nots" from having.
This has done wonders for the precious metals... but what nobody seems to have noticed is that Oil is closing in on $90 per barrel for winter delivery. The more the Fed tries to inflate asset prices (housing) the more it blows other bubbles... problem is, our economy cannot withstand $100+ per barrel oil prices without imploding again - and I doubt China can endure $100 oil, either (though better than the U.S.).
Look, having never navigated the end of a financial system and reserve currency, I make no claim on how best to handle this. I will say that at these prices vis a vi Oil, energy equities are the cheapest asset class on the board. If Nat Gas catches a bid, U.S. energy equities could rise quite a bit (keep in mind that Nat Gas and winter weather are highly correlated, if I may make use of industry jargon... if winter fails to show up, Nat Gas could get even uglier... but a tough winter, given how low Nat Gas prices are compared to the past 5 years, could really push the peanut forward.... keep in mind, betting on winter weather is a lot like betting on hurricanes... well, not that bad, but you get the idea.) Needless to say that a drop under $75 for oil would change the game somewhat... on the other hand, Oil prices need not move any higher... prices are high enough that should they just remain here, the big integrated Oil Co's will be printing money... and not Federal Reserve style. I like the big names... and no, this is not investment advice (oil prices could fall), just an observation. Also, in the short term, equities (including energy equities) could pull back even if Oil does not. But I like them from here and for the next 10 years or so... unless we get another spike like 2008, at which point I would be only to happy too unload them.
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Several months ago I posted a link to Stu Staniford's excellent blog about potential Oil production in Iraq. I forwarded Stu's piece to Jeffrey Brown, better known as Westexas, a geologist and regular commenter here and the man who developed the term and model known as the Export Land Model. Jeffry was kind enough to email back saying that while anything is possible, nothing of the scale mentioned had ever been done before - and given Iraq's poor political structure, instability, violence, and infrastructure... Jeff doubted that they would be the first. As it turns out, the IEA is out in print supporting Jeff's position (btw Jeff, I supported your position... but it never hurts to vet out all challenges, especially when one has real money wagered in the game). Just over a year prior, Jeff sent me his (assisted by Sam Foucher) math and graphical projections for the world export markets. So far, Jeff's model continues to be born out by the data. Should that model continue to prove accurate, or as accurate as it has been so far, my bet is that a significant price shock could hit the West, and the U.S. in particular, at anytime between tomorrow and the end of 2013. If you are reading here Jeffrey, I would very much wish for you to put in your two cents on the matter.
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Its not the number of people bullish or bearish on a market that move prices. Its the number of "dollar votes". The Federal Reserve has voted with one hell of a lot of "dollar votes" - far more than I had thought they would have been willing to have done. I think we have crossed some surreal boundary.
More soon.