"When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."
Regular commentator "Publius" suggested I read the recent posts at the archdruidreport. I did.
I recommend the blog highly. Greer strikes me as a somewhat Left of Center Libertarian willing to question the "conventional wisdom" of his side of the isle, and I applaud him - especially as I view myself as a Right of Center Libertarian willing to question HIS side of the isle, too.
I am as disgusted with the state of affairs here in America as Greer - but I BLAME the misguided notions of the Leftist political elite. A Nation does not become an honorable society by whining about being a victim, promoting abortion, spending without saving, failing to provide for the future, refusing to accept responsibility, and promoting a culture of "government will provide".
I watch in horror as Jag-Offs like Michael Moore lie and distort history to the delight of many, just as I watch in horror as elected officials betray their claim of "fiscal restraint" and "responsible government" only to spend like Liberal Democrats. That Barak Obama effectively won the Nobel Peace prize for being able to read a f&*^&ing teleprompter says a great deal about our sorry state of affairs.
Just boil down the argument between America's Left and Right. The Left wants the right of abortion and the right to seize other people's property to right the wrongs of an unfair world. The Right does not. The rest is just NOISE. Championing these ideas of the Left does not appear to do much for the improvement of the "human condition" or the fiber of our society - irrespective of how one might like to define those terms. A society that stands for the slaughter of the innocent, the confiscation of hard work, and the promotion of living beyond its means is unlikely to be remembered in history for anything positive - if you disagree, please, by all means, point out my error.
And here comes the Oil Import Crisis.
The Oil exporting nations are placing less and less oil on to ships to be sold around the world because their own internal consumption is increasing and their internal production is not. It is just simple arithmetic, and our society is unprepared for this unhappy outcome precisely because for 40 years we have promoted a culture of "something for nothing". I always love James Howard Kuntsler's vitriol directed against Disney World and Las Vegas. A nation wishing on a star at Disney, and believing that something can be had for nothing in Vegas is halfway through a sh*t sandwich - without noticing what's for dinner. But they will.
I will be the first to admit that I missed the U.S. equity market rally since March. We all knew there would be one, but not a one of us saw the strength of the rally. I think that that event is going to lure many into peril. People are back buying U.S. equities for the worst reason imaginable - that there will be a greater fool willing to pay more. Not for earnings, or dividends, or sales growth - but because the US$ is falling, and it appears that (monetary) inflation is driving equity prices. Maybe for now, but I doubt for long. Retail has outperformed Energy in the U.S. equity market. The market seems to think we need more mall space than Oil wells. Go figure. My bet is that this is a temporary state of affairs, and you won't get any warning when the ship lists to the other side.
Oil imports into the U.S. are falling hard, and have been for nearly 3 years. To me, this is THE metric, and then there are all of the others. GM and Chrysler DIED, and Ford was knocking on heaven's door, the Airline industry is on the ropes, and housing hasn't got a prayer. This is all happening because the U.S. is MISSING nearly 3 million barrels of OIL per day that it had available to it as recently as 2006. Our response? To print money and give it away in an attempt to lift asset prices and expand debt. The world is recognizing our dilemma, and has taken it out on the US$. Eventually, the U.S. will raise rates, causing the US$ carry trade off of the table and that will likely be your last chance to reposition your savings. Or not. Maybe the US$ just continues to leak without reprieve. Either way, in 5 to 10 years (or less), dollars will likely be cheaper than match sticks. (Only a slight exaggeration.)
We are in a bad spot here. Yes, corporate interests back in the 1950's had something to do with it... but they were small change compared to the San Francisco City Hall sh*t heads now running the train set, and whose policies have doomed America - if we are LUCKY - to a very, very tough slog over the coming decades. And if we are not so lucky? A political crisis out a Steven King novel.
Way to go, San Fran! You guys fired the shot that heard 'round the world.
In the end, the Libertarians are going to win by default. Personal responsibility and enlightened self interest are going to rule the day once again, because the Oil simply will not be there to fund the Left anymore. And you thought the Left hated "Big Oil". The was the Left's propaganda machine talking. At the base of Left's political power is the money provided by the very people and industries the Left claims to despise. Oil dominates politics in EVERY country around the world. The U.S. is no exception. The only thing backing modern fiat, or paper currencies, is energy - primarily Oil.
As the energy supply declines, the value of money declines.
The political implications, permutations, and combinations are limitless.
Libertariananimal (at) gmail (d0t) com