Ah, but this is my last "examination" by these folks. I am withdrawing my membership. From now on I will run a hedge fund, they can keep the brokerage business. I simply cannot justify the expense and aggravation any more. Root canals are more fun.
Here, Oil is back above $80, the US$ is crashing, unemployment is near 10%, and I am not trading because I am making copies!!!! AGHAGHGAHAGHAGHGAHGHGHG!!!!!
But I digress.
Oil imports are CRASHING (petroleum imports into the U.S. are down 9.1% this year, after an 8%+ decline last year) along with the value of the US$. Those g-d d*mn doomers might be right yet. We have real unemployment of 17% and $80 Oil. Who'd a thunk it?! In fact, if it weren't for the 6.1% increase in domestic production we would REALLY be in the soup. Thank goodness for some level of a free market.
This is serious. I have spoken about the "Incredulity Response" in the past. That's when perfectly normal people walk down into a burning subway platform and asphyxiate because they just could not believe what their own eyes were seeing.
The U.S. equity markets have not gone ANYWHERE in Australian Dollars, and are up modestly from the bottom in Euro's and Canadian Dollars. The sad truth is that our government is trying to devalue itself to prosperity, and while there's always a first... its never been done before.
Let me cut to the chase. The U.S. economy cannot withstand $80 - $100 Oil. Either Oil comes in or the economy sh*t's the bed. Simple. Like. That. How do people in Detroit pay their heating oil bills this winter with 22% unemployment and $100 oil? (Even more unbelievably, I am citing NPR as a source. Good grief, what's next?)
Look for a massive double dip recession. Massive (or look for Oil prices to come in HARD). The U.S. economy is still utterly dependent upon Oil, and Oil DOMINATES our trade deficit. We all know that the US$ must seek a level that balances the current account deficit and our silly social program spending (and yes, I will admit, our outrageous military spending).
This is the SHOULDER PERIOD for Oil prices. Will they firm higher in the HEAD PERIOD? If they do, look out below.
Libertariananimal (at) gmail (d0t) com