Today's Quote:
"LAW III To every action there is always opposed an equal reaction." - Sir Isaac Newton
The U.S. is the world's grain bank. For now (read this from the USDA regarding wheat. Wheat is a very different product from corn in that corn is primarily an animal feed and wheat is primarily grown to feed people). The U.S. went from exporting nearly 60% of its wheat several decades ago to 20 to 30%, and really closer to 20% with a couple year coming in the top of the band (notice the quote "over the past decade, U.S. wheat exports have exceeded 30 million metric tons only twice"). Net exports must be adjusted 2.5% (as the U.S. imports some wheat) making the accurate U.S. wheat export percentage of the crop 17.5% - 27.5%.
Given U.S. population growth how much longer will the U.S. be a wheat exporter? If everything goes perfectly, with no droughts or heat waves or crop disease, somewhere between 10 and 15 years.
Corn
While the U.S. has greater flexibility in corn, that is only true if the U.S. gives up flexibility in ethanol. U.S. can increase corn exports or for use in human consumption at anytime it wishes to - the trade off is less transportation fuel. How much less? Up to nearly 1 million barrels per day. So the U.S. won't be going hungry any time soon based on food supply (not making any calculation for the fact that 40+ Billion need government assistance to buy food now) though prices could rise significantly... unless there is something else that throws a monkey wrench into the system... like a sever fuel shortage that severely impacted the trucking food distribution model.
(Corn has some other issues. As a "heavy feeders" of soil nutrients, corn cannot be grown on the same ground year after year irrespective of how much fertilizer is applied. After 3 successive years of corn on the same ground (farmers call 2 years "corn after corn" and 3 years "corn after corn after corn") the yield per acre in the 3rd year is often down by 1/3 from year 1.)
I see the problem as more of an economic threat/risk than physical threat/risk here in the U.S. Real economic growth will absolutely/positively cease at peak world population (or shortly thereafter) in my opinion. Population either grows or contracts - nothing remains constant - ergo if it isn't growing it will be contracting (and that is dynamic, with ebbs and flows like waves) and if you think economic policy has been fraught with problems and risks of late just imagine what it will be like with a sustained decline in population.
More soon.