If:
Oil imports fall by 2 million barrels into the U.S., the U.S. trucking distribution system would break down. Ok, maybe its 2.5 or even 3 million barrels... but it is somewhere in there. Hoarding takes over, stores empty, government rationing begins, things get really f**** up.... and it will be very hard to stuff the shaving cream back in the can. Just imagine what happens to the financial markets. Then the public pension funds for state and local government employees... and tax collections of sales and property taxes... then California defaults, or no one shows up when certain states want to roll over their debt... I could go on, but I am starting to sound like a doomer...
What would it take for that to come to pass? Not much, really. Algeria joins Libya in anarchy... and that just ain't that far removed from where these folks are at this very moment... Yemen and Iran convulse... now remind me again what Russia's incentive is to not hold back some Oil from the export market? Heck, the KSA does not even have to crack up and we can get there... and if they do, look the f***** out.
Nope... we really are in the soup. This really could happen. Of course, it could not happen, too... after all, somebody is taking the other side of the Long Oil trade... maybe the U.N. saves the day by enforcing a no fly zone over Libya and Algeria, the American Left parachutes into North Africa and proclaims "Change you can Believe In!", promising free healthcare, they hold hands with the mercenaries that killed over 1,000 Libyan citizens and sing "Kum Bi Ya" whilst their minions fan out across the country to convince the locals that all their problems will be solved if they will just recognize that American feminists have their best interests at heart and will demonstrate that with Oil funded Planned Parenthood clinics next to every mosque. Hey... ya never know...
On the other hand, maybe Iran's maniacal regime sees the writing (hangman's noose) on the wall and attempts to deflect the people's will (rage) by engaging Israel in hostilities.... look, I'm an imaginative guy... I can paint what-if scenarios all day... the fact is that the situation has become fluid and really freaking dangerous... and nobody saw this coming what, 8 weeks ago? Imagine where we might be in 8 weeks from now.
This is pretty serious, and it can go either way. Do the Right Thing.