Savings

My oldest is a senior in high school and I have spent countless hours thinking through the issues he will face in making the transition from student to earner sometime in the next 5 to 10 years and given all of the currency, debt, peak oil, etc... issues.

There is this sense that saving money is pointless.  Nothing could be further from the truth for young people.  The US$ has already collapsed.  Could it head down 50% more versus the other major currencies? Sure it could... More likely is that it does not... Either way... does not change the need for savings.

The silly idea that maxing out your 401k is all of the savings you will need is BULL SH#!!  Money in an IRA, 401k, etc... is pretax savings... meaning that you will pay taxes on it when you take it out. $1 million sounds like a lot of money - but in a 401k that $1MM is worth 30 to 50% less than its face value after you factor in state, local, and federal income taxes.  This is not to say that you should not max out your 401k - you should - you should also payoff your home as quickly as possible (to make that chore easier, buy a smaller and less expensive home... and watch those property taxes... they are in insidious drain on your life), and save at least another 10% to 20% of your income in addition to the 401k and 15 year mortgage (30 year mortgage?  BULLSH#! If you can't afford the 15 year payment, you can't afford the house).

OK, so the US$ has some risks... I never said you had to leave all of savings in cash... as you accumulate cash it can be invested in farm land, livestock, precious metals (not a recommendation to buy them here; you are on your own on that call), productive capacity in your own business, commodities and their producers.... but you have to spend much less than you take in.  SIMPLE. LIKE. THAT.

In a LIFETIME many professionals will not earn more than $5 million (start at $80k per year at 30 and work your way up to $250k per year at 44 to 55, washed up at 60 if you are lucky - and that's if you are fortunate enough to escape any "hiccups" along the way).  That means $2.5 to $3 million after taxes (with federal, state and city taxes are aggregated). Guess how much money you would have if you took $200K and compounded interest of 4% for 40 years? $960,000!  Nearly 40% of the life time take home pay for most professionals!!  Well, it costs $200k for an undergrad degree at most "prestigious" private universities and colleges... and you can buy 30 year, zero-coupon, TAX FREE state issued bonds (states cannot go bankrupt) at 4% right now.  Still want to go to that private school?  For the equivalent of 40% of your lifetime earnings?  Really? That state school is looking better all the time, eh? Especially since grad school still needs to be funded...

Look at the Silicon Valley millionaires - they were RICH by the time you got out of grad school.  You don't have an unlimited work life. The earlier you can get to it and make money the better. Its no wonder that so few corporate women have families at the age of 40, and are relying on doctors and peeing into petri dishes in order to procreate... did I mention that that is not covered by insurance?  That career had better have put some savings in the mattress, because it ain't cheap to brew those test tube babies...

Nobody tells you all this stuff when you are picking out your major.  Life is about making smart decisions and luck.  You can't do much about the luck part, but you don't have to dig yourself any more holes than necessary... and when you find yourself in a hole - stop digging.

Times might be tough for a while... but that is all relative, and they don't have to be tough for everyone.