Imports of Oil into the U.S. accelerate their decline down 10.6% this year from 2008, and the market is not soaking up the decreased imports - inventories continue to bulge.
My sense is that the Oil inventories are correct and the mainstream economists are wrong (and that would include the equity market), but what the hell do I know... just kidding. The energy usage data simply does not support a return to an expanding U.S. economy, nor does the rail traffic data for crushed stone and lumber (remember all that "shovel ready stimulus" money? If the government was REALLY putting that money to good use building the nation's infrastructure, roads, ports, bridges, etc... one would expect the shipments of these 2 building products to increase substantially - especially from such an easy comparison point).
Total rail traffic is getting a boost from Coal and Corn (for ethanol) - and that makes sense given the U.S. decline in Oil imports - but even with that boost total traffic in 2009 is still down 16.9% for the last 4 weeks compared to the same period in 2oo7. Speaking of which... tax receipts are down 20%, rail traffic is down 16.9%, unemployment DOUBLED, but GDP declined... 6% total? (Peak to trough.) I gotta get a gig working in data collection for the Feds...
-----------------------------------------------
The banks continue to "extend and pretend" to keep their balance sheets afloat - but for how much longer? A long, long, long, looooooong time, I'm afraid. If the banks/Fed/Administration was interested in the truth... well, an RTC style entity would serve the purpose of price discovery for these "assets"... anybody hear of anything like that? Nope. And you won't, at least not any time soon.
Our banking system is still belly button deep in sh*t.
Perversely, that might be very supportive of the US$ in the short term. Unless it isn't. We have entered the world of the surreal.
More soon,
Libertariananimal (at) gmail (d0t) com