This is one of those moments:
The markets - and I don't care WHICH market; stocks, bonds, commodities, banking, housing etc... - and the economy, specifically the U.S. economy (but considering that the U.S. is 25% of the world's economy) and Western Europe, and politics all hinge, right now and at this moment, on whether or not the Oil Import Decline is real.
Do the exporting nations have the ability to increase their exports? Or NOT? If their exports are in permanent decline the next question is the RATE OF CHANGE. Over the past 30 months or so, imports of Oil into the U.S. have declined at roughly .70% per month. Does that rate of change continue? If it does, the economy will crack - big time. If it does not continue, and imports level off for a few years, we will limp along. If imports INCREASE, the economy will actually grow.
Ergo, its ALL ABOUT OIL.
I am going to flesh this out over the next week or two... so check in...
Libertariananimal (at) gmail (d0t) com