The U.S. Trade Deficit and Oil

The U.S. annual fiscal deficit topped 10% in 2009, and will do so in 2010 and 2011.

So how is it that the economy is only growing 3.5%? (and 2.5% of that is imputations, seasonal adjustments, and guesses.) What will happen to "growth" when budget deficits are stopped (they WILL BE stopped, although perhaps not by our political leaders... "it takes 2 to Tango", as the saying goes... the international bond market will - absolutely and positively - shut that down at some point, trees don't grow to the sky...)

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As I said in my previous post, we all love it when someone agrees with our positions... even if it IS the Main Stream Media.

That doesn't mean one should be encouraged or affirmed by the folks that "Coal Guy" accused of not committing "an act of journalism in years". Take this drek from from the Associated Press.

The higher deficit is evidence of an improving economy. It shows demand is picking up in the United States following the recession, which had cut the trade gap last year to the lowest level in eight years.
While that concept might be accurate, it does not describe the current situation. Our trade deficit is nearly 100% OIL. The trade deficit will go up and down with the price (and volume available) of Oil. PERIOD.

This issue/risk is simply not being priced into the markets.

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The Euro will not survive. No way. You have the crazy circumstance of a "Union" in which the parts each engage in insane fiscal policies, while the "Central Union" can only control monetary policy. Add to this Europe's moral hazards (their safety nets and social programs) which has put them at a tremendous competitive disadvantage vis a vi the ROW (the Left's answer? Use FORCE, read government thugs, to stop international trade. I wonder what history they have been reading... "if goods and services do not cross borders, armies will"). As Jimmy Rogers correctly pointed out, the Greek Bailout means that the Eurozone has effectively given up on the Euro, and that eventually means the end of the Eurozone itself.

Not to worry, though... the Obama administration is going to do the EXACT SAME THING with California. Sometime in Q4'10/Q1'11 the U.S. will have to bailout California.

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"Those that do not know their history are condemned to repeat it."

The truly sad thing here is that as the social programs model fails, its supporters will decry that the problem was NOT ENOUGH of the poison that killed us. Sooner or later humanity WILL get back to the only model that has ever worked in the long term - personal responsibility, family, clan, community... the current model of enacting ever larger bureaucracies to administer the enforcement "make life fair" government intrusion will come to an end one way or another. How many people are murdered or imprisoned around the globe before we come back to that reality is the point we should be debating at this time - but that's not how it works, is it? The way it works is on display in Greece and at every union hall for the public employees here in the U.S.