Posting has been a bit light as it is spring time, and there is simply soooooo much to do on a family farm where the primary labor input is yours truly. I bought the place 4 years ago next week, ergo this is my 5th spring on the farm. I cannot begin to express just how much I have learned, and how much there is to know, in doing this. When I got here, I didn't know a horse shoe from a hammer. Not that I am ready to write books and teach courses, but I feel I actually know how to do this now. I say this only to point out how long it takes to provision and figure out the permaculture family farm - and tell you that you really, really, really need to be in good shape to do this (especially if you are of a "certain age").
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We can argue about the time frame, and we can argue about the ultimate price. Being off by a year or two (or 3. Most of the well informed prognosticators used 2010 +or- 3 years... now the U.S. military, a no B.S. organization if ever there was one, is joining the fray with a time frame not that far off from the others) just does not make a bit of difference to John Q. Public, as John Q. is hardly buying futures contracts... just retail gasoline, as well as the imbedded costs of energy.
What comes to mind to me is what happens to the life savings and portfolios of folks that spent a lifetime accumulating these "assets". Markets are "discounting mechanisms", that is, they predict the future. What happens in the various market places over the next couple of years as the Oil Boa Constrictor tightens down? The equity, bond, and commodity markets predict the future... when do the markets begin to predict this? Are some of the commodities already doing so?
This is going to prove to be a very interesting time to be alive.