Total products supplied is going to come in down 4.5% or so.
You can thank Corn Ethanol and "Drill, Baby, Drill". Domestic Oil production is up 350k bpd, and ethanol is absolutely ROCKING, coming in for the past 4 weeks at 731k bpd (649k bpd for all of 2009)! With an average production increase of 150k bpd for the year.
This is a do or die year for Peak Oil, Peak Imports, and Deflation - and I am betting on all 3 for 2010. While Oil imports have peaked, I am not sure that that means Oil won't be heading down in US$ terms.
All eyes on the bond market.
Treasuries are getting their a$$ handed to them, and that has brought 30 year mortgages back over 5% (if you can actually GET a mortgage) and over 7.5% for jumbos (but no one can get a jumbo mortgage so I guess it does not matter). At these levels, housing is being seriously challenged again, and if rates were to head 50 basis points (.5%) higher - stand back! Timber!!!
I have changed my ultimate outcome from: 55% hyper-inflation, 35% deflation, 10% don't worry/be happy, to: 60% deflation, 30% hyper inflation, 10% don't worry be happy.
I won't bore you with predictions for 2010 other than to say "the truth will out".
My sincere wish for a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year to all!