WOW!
Just when you thought inventories of petroleum products were almost overflowing, you get data this week that 12.7 million barrels of petroleum products & crude were drawn down. Still, consumption of product, other than gasoline, is down big. This does not support the goldilocks scenario portrayed by the U.S. equity market, and a warm winter would likely portend a significant decline in distillate, and crude Oil, prices - or at least I think so... that is, unless you have a few more inventory reports like today... that would be a game changer.
I want to be long Oil for delivery out a couple years, but I really think that the probability is with lower, not higher prices, in the near term (not calculating the effects of a dust up with Iran).
Imports continue south in a big way, and demand for petroleum products is just awful here in the U.S.. That does not speak well for the near term economic picture. On the other hand, China has increased imports faster than we lost them... but, I would not put a great deal of stock in the "Chinese Miracle" just yet. They do, however, seem more interested in buying Oil than Gold.... and they have the cash....
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It is no secret that I am a Right of Center Libertarian type, and a Registered Republican - and I am COMPLETELY opposed to ANY (further) involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq.
I am not alone (from Jack Hunter at American Conservative):
For eight long years under George W. Bush, conservatives endorsed a don’t ask, don’t tell foreign policy–they did not really ask why their country was at war and Republican leaders did not tell, or bother, Americans with any of the gory details. Missions were accomplished, we fought them over there so we didn’t have to fight them here and troops were supported by simply supporting the wars they fought, with little to no dissent. But why were we fighting? What was “victory?” How many had to die? What was the cost? Conservatives did not ask-Republican politicians did not tell.But some Republicans are finally asking. Regarding President Obama’s decision to escalate the war in Afghanistan, columnist Reihan Salam writes: “Rep. Jason Chaffetz, a Utah Republican known for his independent streak, has made a conservative case for withdrawal.” Says Chaffetz: “Our military is not a defensive force for rough neighborhoods around the world. They are trained to be an offensive, mission-driven military force to protect the United States of America. They are not trained to be nation builders or policemen… If our mission in Afghanistan is simply to protect the populace and build the nation, then I believe the time has come to bring our troops home.”Is Chaffetz’s position on Afghanistan a sign of things to come? Salam thinks so, writing: “my guess is that by the 2010 congressional elections, dozens of Republican candidates will be doing the same across the country.”We can only hope. As a conservative, I have long found it perplexing that to a large extent the American Right has been defined by its enthusiasm for going to war virtually anywhere, for virtually any reason and often for no good reason.
How's that for a candid assessment?
This would be an excellent time to start bringing service folks back from all points on the globe.
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The U.S. wealth and elite class, DOMINATED BY THE LEFT (Wall Street is NOT REPUBLICAN! It is DOMINATED by GOLDMAN SACHS, the ANTI-CHRIST, and they don't get more liberal-democrat than GOVERNMENT SACHS!), has never been so blind (IMHO) as to how bad conditions are for the "Reagan Democrats" and Small Biz Republicans on Main Street (they pretend to give a good fart about the people that are so far down and out there is no shot in h*ll of improving their lot in less then 3 generations, but the people that actually get up every morning and try to do the right thing? They dismiss them as a "bunch of nose picking, gun toting" rednecks, white trash, rubes...) and I fully expect over the next 5 years or so that economic conditions will deteriorate badly. As I have often said, I can't time my toaster oven, so don't expect me to give you any kind of firm time line - I will demure - but I give the outcome a virtual certainty. (I give it a 55% probability of a hyper-inflationary blow off, a 35% probability of a deflationary collapse, and 10% Armageddon/No problem/standard stagflation.)
I do not for 1 SECOND believe that the U.S. will reduce its spending profile - neither for social programs NOR the military budget. It then follows that the system will go Chernobyl at some point... and if you really want to time that point? Follow Oil imports, inventories, and production.
I am not hoping for or wishing for this... this is just what the data says to me.