Rail Cargo and the Euro

Back to the Rail Cargo cliff drop... I have been scouring the web for an explanation to the drop-dead fall in rail traffic. Nothing jumped out at me... (if anybody has anything good, please link)

Except the Euro.

The Euro was drifting down $1.50+ to $1.35 - and then screamed down to $1.18. It would appear that U.S. exports to Europe DIED... and with it rail traffic. Then....

Look at this graph of the Baltic Dry Index.

WTF??!!

If the data is correct, these indexes are pointing to an AIG style cluster f**k sometime this summer. Maybe bigger. No "maybe"... probably much bigger. One cannot compare a default by AIG with a default by, say.... Italy - a country with the 3rd largest public debt (behind the U.S. and Japan) where said debt is at least 115% of GDP.

I am not making a prediction about Italy per se, only that these indexes are discounting something very, very, very big... and something like an Italy default would fit the bill...

Given the Baltic Dy Index, Rail Traffic, the DECLINE in interest rates for Treasuries AND the recent record in Gold and near record for Silver in U.S.$ at a time where the US$ is RALLYING almost vertically??!!...

Something's up.

Stay tuned.