Scenario:
The U.S. has a 9.8% official unemployment rate. Anybody with any financial sophistication (that leaves out the media and the Sheeple) knows that the U6 rate, the REAL rate, is closer to 18%.
This administration, in an effort to survive into a second term, is willing to search for "an ass to kick". They cause B.P's liquidation. "Yay!" Says the Sheeple and the Left. "Yay! We killed one of th bad guys!" They prosecute a number of folks on the Horizon and in BP. They extend the drilling moratorium for 12 and then 24 months. 75,000 very high paying jobs in the oil services industry go kaput in the GOM region.
The rigs move to Asia, Africa, Russia, Brazil, et al...
The GOM is responsible for 15% to 18% of U.S. Nat Gas supplies, and a larger piece of the Oil pie.
Oil imports into the U.S. continue to decline at .7% per month, as they have for the past 48 months or so.
OK. There it is. You are an analyst for the CIA. What are the likely and possible outcomes?
Intelligent commentary is requested.