I have been noodling the Iran/Israel thing. I cannot envision that any Israeli prime minister would be willing to chance a nuclear armed Iran. I read with interest an article today in which the writer asserted that no Israeli prime minister wants to go down in history as the guy under whose watch Iran became a nuclear power. I think a valid point. Ergo, I think Israel will, at some point in the relatively near future, attack Iran. After all, what would be the point of Israel, "a safe place for Jews", to exist if it were to allow a neighbor sworn to destroy it a nuclear weapon? Rather than "a safe place for Jews" Israel would become a concentration point for their annihilation. This cannot be acceptable to Israel or the Diaspora.
I do not think the U.S. will be involved... but I do think that the Israelis know that the U.S. cannot afford to have an Israeli attack result in Gulf shipping to be shut down or for the Israelis to suffer a strategic defeat. So, even though I don't think BHO wants anything to do with an Iran confrontation before the election... I think the Israeli's know they hold the cards. The U.S. can't stop Israel, and the U.S. can't let Israel fail. When Israel acts, the U.S. will be forced to act.
I am not talking about what I want to happen or hope will happen... I am talking about what I think is most likely TO happen (I said "most likely"- not "definitely"). I also have no idea about the soundness of this adventure, the odds of success, the costs, or the unintended consequences. My sense is that much of this is unknowable, but it seems that the chances for an interruption in Oil supplies out of the region are very high. And I think that this is going to happen.
We are all in the Risk Management business now.