Iran is threatening to close the Straight of Hormuz.
(I've mentioned this threat in previous posts...)
While I doubt that Iran has the ability to take on the U.S. Navy and effect a closure of the Straight for any length of time... you never know. The unintended consequences and unforeseen outcomes of a full fledged conflict with Iran, for that is what would come to pass at that point, are many and varied.
What would happen in the U.S. if Iran were successful in halting Oil shipments out of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran itself? Oil is a fungible commodity... it would matter little if most of the ME Oil ends up in Europe and Asia. The U.S. imports roughly 23% of the world's exported Oil. Oil exports would be cut by 25% or so... America would feel most or all of that cut... so let's say a little over 2 million barrels per day would come out of American supplies in short order (this is product and crude).
Of course the price of Oil, and hence gasoline, would be a moon shot... but the real problem would be availability - and physics. Without that Oil, a great deal less "work" would take place... with cascading effects across the economy, government, and society.
Police would have less gasoline to respond to 911 calls. Commuters would have less gas to commute. Markets would tumble. And yet, if temporary, such a short term crisis might be very, very helpful in prodding Americans, and our government, into taking action. After all, Oil imports, as we currently define them, will be gone in far less than a human lifetime... a closure in the Straight of Hormuz might give us some idea of what our future might be like and also give us some incentive, and our political leaders some cover, to get on with planning for life after Oil.
Because life will be very different. Yes, we will still have cars... having a car won't be the issue.... the issue will be the number of miles the average American travels by car, and that number is going to plummet (Here's a graph of Vehicle Miles Traveled ("VMT")... perhaps this process is underway right now). Think about that for a moment. In a nation of car commuting, what happens to the need for office and retail work space? It goes down like a rock in a pond, and with it the value of those properties (many of which are owned by the various pension funds... and those funds are already terribly underfunded) and the value of the mortgages held on these properties by the banks...
I could go on and on and on... but you get the idea. American's think nothing of getting in their car and burning $5 in gasoline in order to travel to purchase $1.50 worth of eggs. That will come to a screeching (no pun intended) halt. Now think about the impact on the auto industry... without that kind of wasteful driving how are we going to wear-out our cars so that we are forced to buy new ones? At some point we are going to figure out that we don't need a single additional car in order to burn all of the Oil we are ever going to have.... And what of the impact on retailers of the decline of traffic into their stores and the profits from impulse buying that will no longer be taking place due to an absence of impulse buyers?
And doesn't all of this contract the credit system (deflation of credit)? The Left bemoans how unfair wealth distribution is in the U.S. In this scenario that problem would evaporate... along with all of the tax revenues that currently support all of their favorite Social Programs.
Ah, but its a beautiful day. I have to go feed my livestock and milk the cow and head over to the academy to teach a grappling class. Enjoy your day!