Today's disappointing non-farm payroll data is an excellent test of my "no-spare-capacity" theory, and of the recent rise in energy prices to their near term resistance point.
Please keep in mind that my "theory" is based entirely on the price action in the commodity and the fact that this is happening with inventories at multi year highs... you see, I have started to see those inventories as the first wave of hoarding - and that is a very, very serious accusation on my part. Please keep in mind that I reserve the right to change my mind on a dime, I don't stand on ceremony... "if I am wrong I am gone"... but hoarding, IMHO, would first show up in inventories - NOT with John Q. Public showing up at gas stations, filling his containers and hiding them at home.... but we shall have to wait and see.