Gold, Silver & Platinum are back to "End of the World" prices... Oil is knocking on that door... consumers continue to shed debt and refuse new credit... a number of countries could easily default on their debts... and stocks are partying like its 1999 at a time when bonds are "Sh*ting the Bed" (technical Wall Street speak for dying). Go f#@*&ing figure!
The battle between deflation and the central banks is on, and it certainly looks like the central banks won round 1. Still, its a long, long fight.
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The world Oil market does not seem to care about the U.S. any more. Clearly, the U.S. is no longer the marginal consumer - and that means we no longer set the price of crude in the market place. As I pointed out in my recent post, at today's price the U.S. "Oil only" trade deficit is about $302 Billion at today's price. This is one reason why I am NOT that bullish on Oil, not that we couldn't see surges in price, but a sustained price of $160 per barrel would DOUBLE the U.S. Oil only trade deficit to over $600 Billion... and that just ain't gonna happen (barring some geopolitical event, that is) at a time when the Fed is quitting its MBS purchase program, and the balance of the stimulus programs have run their course. All those houses that were bought because of the $8000 credit? They came out of next year's purchase. Same with cash for clunkers. Those air pockets have yet to be hit.
I don't think Oil sustains triple digit yearly averages until imports have declined quite a bit from here.
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On a completely silly note....
Why is it that lover's betray each other other the way they do in the media? If some famous media starlet threw me a bone and later the entire media circus showed up at my farm... She could count on me to do 3 gentlemanly things: Deny, deny, deny.
WTF is up with these people? Do they have a shred of loyalty? Have they no decency? Anybody that would throw their lover under the proverbial bus is a POS.
Sometimes I despair for my fellow (wo)man.