Fallacy after Fallacious Reasoning after Fallacy...

The United States of Blame.

Tom Whipple, a retired CIA analyst (yes, that CIA) had this to say on his web site today.

No wonder that, according to a recent Washington Post poll, 58 percent of Americans are mad at President Obama, 68 percent mad at Congressional Democrats, and 72 percent mad at Congressional Republicans, and 62 percent want to throw somebody out of office in hopes of finding a shining knight who will solve their economic problems. If only it were as easy as going out and voting.

Interestingly, six in ten surveyed by Pew believe that the economic situation will be better soon and that the recession is only temporary. This alone vividly illustrates how poorly the true state of the global economic situation is understood and the size of the shock that most of us are in for.

Nearly everyone will admit that continuing oil shortages and that high (above $100 a barrel) oil prices would be devastating to the prospects for economic recovery and that persisting very high (say above $200 a barrel) oil prices would send the U.S. and many other economies into a deep, long-lasting depression. The problem is that few are willing to consider seriously the accumulating evidence that increasing oil prices and eventually oil shortages within the next few years are as inevitable as the sunrise. Most of us have no thoughts about the issue other than the current price of a gallon of gas. Among those who appreciate that the world's petroleum resources are finite, few understand the proximity of the crisis.

We have become the United State of BLAME. Obama and his team were doomed by the zeitgeist blowing when they took office. The ghost of Jimmy Carter is long indeed. Rather than tackle the problem head on, the Administration punted/puked, hoping only to gain a second term - because that is the only measure of success in politics. What we really needed in the 2008 election was an old man not considering a second term - Ron Paul and John McCain come to mind - and willing to "do the nasty".

Oh, well.

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BTW

Remember that Congressman, Carson I believe, that claimed that Tea Party folks/fat white folks used the "N" word (and FYI, I deleted someone's recent comments because of the use of that word) repeatedly? And that Andrew Breitbart of breitbart.com then offered $100,000 as a reward if someone could substantiate this with a recording or video... and given the number of video cameras on hand and visible in the news shot it is reasonable to conclude that if it were shouted at the Congressman SOMEBODY would have picked it up... Well, guess what.

People make false accusations. Congressmen make false accusations. Strippers at Duke LaCrosse parties make false accusations. People in divorce court make false accusations. I consider false accusers to be lower than child molesters - especially Carson. Look, we all expect people with mental illnesses, borderline personality disorder, bi-polar disorder, mood disorder... to pull this sh*t. Sitting Congressmen? Not so much. And where is the F***ing media? Nowhere to be found.

The accusation is always on the front page. The retraction is on page 18, right under the pet obituaries. In this case, it just kind of faded away with the help of the Media

Predatory Education

I regularly read Carolyn Baker's blog "Truth to Power" and John Michael Greer's "The Archdruid Report". While I likely have little in common with their politics (and that is a shame; I don't know why the denizens of the Left do not embrace Libertarianism more), both of these folks have an uncommon ability to think for themselves and express their thoughts succinctly (if I may be permitted the use of understatement).

If you have time to peruse their stuff, I highly recommend it (keep in mind that unless you are a "true believer" in their cause(s) some of their brilliance will needs be gleaned from the inane political commentary... much as some of you feel about certain other bloggers...).

Here is the passage that struck me from Greer's blog:

A hundred years ago, by contrast, a student pursuing a scientific or engineering degree might need half a dozen textbooks for the entire course of his studies. Every chapter, and indeed every paragraph, in each of those books would be unpacked in lectures, explored in lab work, brought up in tests and term papers, so that by the time the student graduated he had mastered everything those textbooks had to teach. That depth of study is almost unheard of nowadays, when students shoulder half a dozen huge textbooks a term, and have so little time to process any of the contents of any of them that the bleak routine of memorize, regurgitate, and forget all too often becomes the only option.

Combine that with the transformation of much of American higher education into a predatory industry fueled by aggressively marketed student loans, and every bit as focused on quarterly income as any Fortune 500 corporation, and you have the collapse of our educational system sketched out in a recent and harrowing blog post by former professor Carolyn Baker.

The predatory lending that occurred in the mortgage business over the past decade PALES in comparison to what is being done to young people by the college/student loan industrial complex. Over the past 50 years a compact has been reached between our Corporations and our Universities. One simply cannot get a corporate job without an undergraduate degree in most fields (programing and entertainment are notable exceptions among others). Corporations now have "enlisted men" and "officers", with the officer's "commission" coming from the Universities in the form of an undergraduate degree.

(Since medieval times militaries have been polarized into haves and have nots. The commissioned officers came from the aristocracy and nobility and the "enlisted men" came from the commoners. Today's dividing line? An undergraduate degree.)

The Universities recognized the new power structure and began extorting monies from the masses of young people with mafia-like enthusiasm. "Wanna be able to work? F**k you, pay me. Can't pay? No problem. This loan shark will be happy to help you out." Then, this unholy duo, knowing just how badly they are duping these kids, uses their muscle to elbow into Federal Bankruptcy Law and carve themselves out an exception. No matter HOW PREDATORY their lending practices were on the young and impressionable students these debts could not be discharged in bankruptcy. I wonder if they consulted Roman Polanski on how best to take advantage of these kids?

The general rate of inflation over the past 30 years has been just under 3%. The rate of inflation for tuition at private colleges? Just over 7%. The rate of inflation for private sector wages? Just under 2%. It does not take an undergraduate degree in mathematics to plot this on an X & Y graph.

One last thing. To you parents out there considering letting your children go into big time hock for their education: Hope you weren't looking forward to grandchildren. The new Pox, if you will, in mate selection is a toxic level of student loans. It is the mirror image of marrying into a wealthy family. Markets are not stupid, even marriage markets. Young people have this one down: "Got debt? Get lost."

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The 99ers. I had not seen that moniker before. It refers to people that were on unemployment for 99 weeks (nearly 2 YEARS) and that, as of now, cannot count on anymore largess from the taxpayer.

(I met a fellow here in Tennessee last week that had moved here recently from California. He was a "99er". After his benefits ran out he left California and took a job here cutting down trees. A big man (borderline obese yet burly; the biker look), he looked to be in his mid 40's. He told me he had a hard time getting used to manual labor again but that he had no choice - he needed a job.)

I have written about this before. Many Americans will need to be FORCED into making other arrangements as our total debt (monetary deflation) and oil supply contracts. Who in their right mind would willingly leave behind a $585 a week unemployment check to work cutting down trees in the Tennessee summer heat for $600 per week (BTW, $585 weekly in California is poverty level while $600 here in rural Tennessee is a living wage)?

This is simply the way it is.

On another note... I recently wrote that all Americans seem to believe they are middle class. No matter how poor, they merely see themselves as broke.

"I understood the president and Congress had to stabilize the banks, get Wall Street going. I figured something would be done for middle-class Americans, that they couldn't abandon us. But I was wrong."

This unfortunate man is no longer middle class. Most Americans are as poor as church mice. They just don't know it. New cars, new houses, vacations... might be good for the economy, but they are hell on the people not saving because they are consuming. There is a skill set to being poor, and having grown up without 2 nickels to rub together I can speak with some authority on the matter (and its not so bad! No, you won't have any bling, or an SUV with spinning rims, or myriads of other silly sh*t that one just does not need or the friends and lovers that come with this stuff). Funny thing is, its the same skill set for maintaining any wealth one might accumulate. Too bad our colleges and universities cannot teach THIS skill set... it might be worth it.

The other Conundrum

Folks need to save more for their retirement according to this study.

Maybe. Or maybe folks need to save more for many reasons. Maybe folks should work until they simply can't work any more (after all, working is good for you... although you may have to find a new line of work in old age...)... but there is NO doubt that folks really should save more - from an economic consideration. Savings, you see, is really unconsumed production. Ergo, if you are able to save in the first place it means your lifestyle is likely supportable without undo risk and stress; your overhead is moderate leaving money left over.

At least I think so.

The problem is that savings, in the form of unconsumed production, decreases demand in the short term (and increases capital investment over the longer term). And I think that that is exactly what is happening. Of course, our dumb government is "stimulating" by the amount of the rough increase in consumer savings in order to avoid all appearance of a contraction.

"Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estateIt will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.”

-Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury advising Herbert Hoover in 1929

Of course, Hoover did not follow Mellon's excellent advice. Can you imagine a sitting, Democrat Treasury Secretary giving that advice? Or even a Republican? In the "Land of the obese and the home of the something-for-nothing"? NAFC.

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