There really isn't much more to say on the Peak Oil story. The Peaknic's have won. There is no need to gloat - the revolution will not be televised... and it will likely take longer than the hard core doomers would have liked.
"Peak Oil" was probably the best thing that ever happened to me. Before being Peak Oil aware, or age of industrialization aware, or age of TV aware, or age of Government Control aware... whatever you wish to call it... I was on the same self-destructive trajectory as anybody else. Moderately overweight and in my mid- 40's, I compared myself to the people around me... next to them I looked like Jack LaLane... meanwhile I was searching for a heart attack, or a perpetual bad back, or whatever it is that brings prosperous professionals low in their 50's and 60's... then I moved to the farm and slowly began to deindustrialize my life. I had some sad help - one of my hero's on Wall Street died of a heart attack at 62, with hundred's of millions of $$ in the bank, a huge belly, and while I was not privy to his medical charts... wanna bet on diabetes and erectile dysfunction et al? Shortly afterward, portly Matt Simmons took his final jacuzzi trip to the sky...
As it turns out, you do need enough money... but as you get older you need your health and vitality more... these guys would have been better off having gone broke and forced to engage in manual labor - they might have made it well into their 80's... but it was not to be.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, literally at the ranch, my recently de-industrialized lifestyle was yielding payoffs I hadn't really calculated or given much thought to. Without really trying, I lost 20 pounds... then I figured, hey let's do a "hard cut" and finish off that last 10lbs... bang, it was off. Working around the farm my weight is back to my weight at age 20 (I am 51). On the other hand, I don't make money like I used to... but with care and budgeting and frugality, I think we can maintain this lifestyle and still provide the kids with educations and weddings and such... there will be no profligate spending, and we won't miss any meals... the real issue has been the incredible yield in my LIFE in not being a fat, middle aged, industrial worker/automaton/troll.
We still have cable TV, though I personally NEVER watch it (Never is a strong word... less than an hour per month). My wife likes to have the cartoon channels for the kids, but I would like to take a baseball bat to the cable box. I do watch Youtube videos and netflix documentaries and the occasional movie... but their just isn't time for industrialized "home entertainment" on the farm.
I've got the meat/dairy/eggs/vegetable thing down... HOWEVER... We spend roughly $300 to $400 per month on organic fruit... so I cleared a soft fruit garden. I had a good thing going with 3 plum, 10 peach, and 5 apple trees, but the goats got out 2 years ago and killed more than half of them... I had intended to get a real orchid going this spring, but it might be too late... but back to the soft fruit... I planted 12 Blackberry, 15 Blueberry, 10 Grape vines, 2 large raised beds of Strawberry, and Rasberry is going in today. I don't expect much yield until next year, but one has to start somewhere. Bananas and Citrus will be coming from Publix in any event.
Total "garden" area is now over an acre, which is a lot of work. To this I intend to add by renting several acres to plant field corn for livestock feed. I am also going to sell our pleasure horses and buy a pair of mules. Draft horses eat too much, but a couple of mules should be supportable. I will let you know.
You simply cannot do this without equipment. Either you have a tractor/draft animals and implements or you will not be raising significant amounts of food. Period. "Gardening When It Counts" just ain't gonna cut it. A de-industrialized lifestyle is not completely de-industrialized. Even horse drawn implements are creations of industrialization. Also, freezers. I have 2 massive chest freezers, and they are full. In addition to canning, which I hate, we freeze much of our produce... 50 heads of broccoli take up an awful lot of room in the freezer, and we grow that much each spring AND fall. Boy, would I ever miss those freezers. I could easily give up central heating and cooling, but not the freezers.
The biggest savings besides direct food costs will be when we can get down to 1 vehicle (we have 2). I have to cut down on driving significantly... my wife does not seem to share my anti-driving sentiments.
Lastly, we have been keeping meat rabbits... one of the best things we have done. They are much easier to process than a chicken, give more and more tender meat, and growing their feed is easy. We seem to eat 2 o4 3 per month, and find that 1 buck and 2 does will provide all we can eat.
Inter-Race Crime
The Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman case has sparked outrage and protest across the U.S. I have no opinion on that specific case and I am confident that that case will get a very thorough investigation without my help.
After the Trayvon Martin killing and the subsequent protests, I did what any self-respecting observer of the human condition with OCD would do.
I went to the FBI web site and reviewed tables on interracial crime in America. What I found was so disturbing that I am still somewhat disheartened. I had several conversations with people on Facebook about the data, but those inclined to the Mainstream Media's view either suggested that I made the data up, was some kind of White Supremacist, or refused to engage further.
BTW... I am really not a White Supremacist. My wife is not white, and my kids are bi-racial (my wife is not black... more of a delicious mocha cappuccino... not sure if that is the right shade for inclusion in the National Association of Colored People... always curious about those folks... what color, exactly?). I would describe myself as a middle-aged-white-pacifist-Libertarian with a fetish for organic farming. I am not motivated by racial issues. I AM motivated by violence issues - or perhaps better said as non-violence issues. I reject militarism, capital punishment, abortion, and each and every other example of institutional AND individual violence. I do respect the Right to defend one's loved ones and oneself. End of disclosure and disclaimer.
OK? So.... after reviewing the data at the FBI's website I will start with this assertion: The idea promulgated in the media that Black people suffer violence at the hands of White racists in overwhelming numbers is a fabrication. Here are the statistical facts:
A White American is 52.5 TIMES more likely to suffer a violent assault or murder by a Black American perpetrator than is a Black American to suffer violence from a White American.
Black Americans murder White Americans at 18X the rate that White Americans murder Black Americans.
(CORRECTION!! The above 2 data points, are stated poorly... what I should have said was this: The African American community creates/manufactures inter-racial violent criminals at 52.5X the rate that the White American Community manufactures inter-racial violent criminals. When it comes to inter-racial murderers, the African American community manufactures inter-racial murderers at 18X the rate that the White American community manufactures/creates interracial murderers for the period 1990 to 2010. In 2010 alone, that multiple dropped to 14X.)
For the past decade nearly 35,000 White women have suffered forceable raped each year by a Black Perpetrator. The number of Black Women suffering a forceable rape by a White Man averaged less than 10 per year. 35,000 to less than 10.
Gang rapes of White Women by Black Men - about 3000 per year. Gang rapes of Black Women by White Men? Virtually unheard of, with the glaring exception of the Duke rape case.
The number of White Women murdered each year by Black Men averages over 500 per year. The number of Black Women murdered by White Men is less than 10 per year.
In fact, ALL White Male violence on Black Women is statistically non-existent (not saying it does not happen... just saying lottery wins are far, far, far, more common statistically)... and White Male violence against Black Males is only slightly more common statistically.
OK. I think you got the idea. Did any of you know the extent of the problem? Me neither. Of course, we all know about the number of Black men in prison, parole, or probation... but most of us really didn't look under the hood. Well, the above numbers are what I noticed when looking under said hood. I left out commentary and just gave you the numbers. That the Mainstream Media does not publish either the numbers OR the commentary is an outrage. Worse, the Mainstream media issues forth propaganda about the relatively rare violence that Black Americans' suffer at the hands of White Americans.
A greater outrage is the lack of outrage in the Black community. Young black men want justice for Trayvon Martin, and rightly so. If it is found that he was murdered, George Zimmerman should and will be prosecuted. If it is found that Martin was smashing Zimmerman's head on the ground and was shot in self-defense, Zimmerman should and will be exonerated. That is the definition of justice. I should think that the African-American hunger for justice would be extended to the victims of all violent crime. It simply is not - and that is an outrage.
Those are the facts.
Here comes the assertion (and please leave your hysteria at home... I will so stipulate that I am ugly and my wife does dress me funny... now that we've got that out of the way, can we have a rational discussion of the assertion absent the ad hominem attacks?)
Thinking about those facts I wondered why the Left/Democrats, which are dominant in the MainStream Media, would censure this data from their publishing. Look, if President Obama beats the GOP by 59% to 38% among women and presidential elections are won by just a percentage point or 2, by mathematical necessity the Left/Democrats are disproportionally female and the Right/Republicans are disproportionally male. Get that?
So why would a party/political affiliation dominated by white women refuse to publish or discuss this very public data? Why are 35,000 rapes and over 500 murders of their daughters, sisters, and mothers not worthy of public discussion?
In a word - Abortion.
Black Americans make up 14% of the population, yet vote nearly 100% for Democratic candidates. Without the Black vote there IS NO Democratic party. In the absence of nearly 100% of the Black vote going for BHO, Mitt Romney is the next president. The Democratic party is willing to negotiate on any and every issue except one - Abortion - and it seems to me that they are willing to censure discussion of the above data in exchange for control of the Liberal/Democratic party for the purposes of keeping the world safe for Abortion.
My sense of this is that anyone refusing to acknowledge this is contributing to the violence. You are either part of the solution or part of the problem. It is said that Holocaust occurred because good men looked away. I will always refuse to look away.
After the Trayvon Martin killing and the subsequent protests, I did what any self-respecting observer of the human condition with OCD would do.
I went to the FBI web site and reviewed tables on interracial crime in America. What I found was so disturbing that I am still somewhat disheartened. I had several conversations with people on Facebook about the data, but those inclined to the Mainstream Media's view either suggested that I made the data up, was some kind of White Supremacist, or refused to engage further.
BTW... I am really not a White Supremacist. My wife is not white, and my kids are bi-racial (my wife is not black... more of a delicious mocha cappuccino... not sure if that is the right shade for inclusion in the National Association of Colored People... always curious about those folks... what color, exactly?). I would describe myself as a middle-aged-white-pacifist-Libertarian with a fetish for organic farming. I am not motivated by racial issues. I AM motivated by violence issues - or perhaps better said as non-violence issues. I reject militarism, capital punishment, abortion, and each and every other example of institutional AND individual violence. I do respect the Right to defend one's loved ones and oneself. End of disclosure and disclaimer.
OK? So.... after reviewing the data at the FBI's website I will start with this assertion: The idea promulgated in the media that Black people suffer violence at the hands of White racists in overwhelming numbers is a fabrication. Here are the statistical facts:
A White American is 52.5 TIMES more likely to suffer a violent assault or murder by a Black American perpetrator than is a Black American to suffer violence from a White American.
Black Americans murder White Americans at 18X the rate that White Americans murder Black Americans.
(CORRECTION!! The above 2 data points, are stated poorly... what I should have said was this: The African American community creates/manufactures inter-racial violent criminals at 52.5X the rate that the White American Community manufactures inter-racial violent criminals. When it comes to inter-racial murderers, the African American community manufactures inter-racial murderers at 18X the rate that the White American community manufactures/creates interracial murderers for the period 1990 to 2010. In 2010 alone, that multiple dropped to 14X.)
For the past decade nearly 35,000 White women have suffered forceable raped each year by a Black Perpetrator. The number of Black Women suffering a forceable rape by a White Man averaged less than 10 per year. 35,000 to less than 10.
Gang rapes of White Women by Black Men - about 3000 per year. Gang rapes of Black Women by White Men? Virtually unheard of, with the glaring exception of the Duke rape case.
The number of White Women murdered each year by Black Men averages over 500 per year. The number of Black Women murdered by White Men is less than 10 per year.
In fact, ALL White Male violence on Black Women is statistically non-existent (not saying it does not happen... just saying lottery wins are far, far, far, more common statistically)... and White Male violence against Black Males is only slightly more common statistically.
OK. I think you got the idea. Did any of you know the extent of the problem? Me neither. Of course, we all know about the number of Black men in prison, parole, or probation... but most of us really didn't look under the hood. Well, the above numbers are what I noticed when looking under said hood. I left out commentary and just gave you the numbers. That the Mainstream Media does not publish either the numbers OR the commentary is an outrage. Worse, the Mainstream media issues forth propaganda about the relatively rare violence that Black Americans' suffer at the hands of White Americans.
A greater outrage is the lack of outrage in the Black community. Young black men want justice for Trayvon Martin, and rightly so. If it is found that he was murdered, George Zimmerman should and will be prosecuted. If it is found that Martin was smashing Zimmerman's head on the ground and was shot in self-defense, Zimmerman should and will be exonerated. That is the definition of justice. I should think that the African-American hunger for justice would be extended to the victims of all violent crime. It simply is not - and that is an outrage.
Those are the facts.
Here comes the assertion (and please leave your hysteria at home... I will so stipulate that I am ugly and my wife does dress me funny... now that we've got that out of the way, can we have a rational discussion of the assertion absent the ad hominem attacks?)
Thinking about those facts I wondered why the Left/Democrats, which are dominant in the MainStream Media, would censure this data from their publishing. Look, if President Obama beats the GOP by 59% to 38% among women and presidential elections are won by just a percentage point or 2, by mathematical necessity the Left/Democrats are disproportionally female and the Right/Republicans are disproportionally male. Get that?
So why would a party/political affiliation dominated by white women refuse to publish or discuss this very public data? Why are 35,000 rapes and over 500 murders of their daughters, sisters, and mothers not worthy of public discussion?
In a word - Abortion.
Black Americans make up 14% of the population, yet vote nearly 100% for Democratic candidates. Without the Black vote there IS NO Democratic party. In the absence of nearly 100% of the Black vote going for BHO, Mitt Romney is the next president. The Democratic party is willing to negotiate on any and every issue except one - Abortion - and it seems to me that they are willing to censure discussion of the above data in exchange for control of the Liberal/Democratic party for the purposes of keeping the world safe for Abortion.
My sense of this is that anyone refusing to acknowledge this is contributing to the violence. You are either part of the solution or part of the problem. It is said that Holocaust occurred because good men looked away. I will always refuse to look away.
Various Data Points
Total gasoline consumption declined year over year, and is confirmed here in the year over year decline in total Vehicle Miles Traveled in the U.S., down 1.2% 2011 over 2010.
Total rail tonnage is down month over month February 2012 over 2011, and year over year 2011/2010.
Electricity production (and hence consumption) was down big year over year (4.5% in 2011 over 2010) and January over January 2011/2012 was off a staggering 7.5% (some of that has to be attributed to lower electric heating demand due to the warm winter here in the U.S.)
Here is an excellent chart from "ycharts" on electricity generation over the past 5 years.
"Trucking Tonnage" is bucking these trends. Or maybe not. California is home to 1/8 of America, and their taxable diesel sales for fiscal year 2011 (which ends November 30) was down from 2010 (but it was sharply increasing in 2nd half of 2011).
To be accurate the big increase in trucking came in December, 2011 - and (if accurate) it was whopper. Also (if accurate) the decline in January 2012 was a whopper.
Total rail tonnage is down month over month February 2012 over 2011, and year over year 2011/2010.
Electricity production (and hence consumption) was down big year over year (4.5% in 2011 over 2010) and January over January 2011/2012 was off a staggering 7.5% (some of that has to be attributed to lower electric heating demand due to the warm winter here in the U.S.)
Here is an excellent chart from "ycharts" on electricity generation over the past 5 years.
"Trucking Tonnage" is bucking these trends. Or maybe not. California is home to 1/8 of America, and their taxable diesel sales for fiscal year 2011 (which ends November 30) was down from 2010 (but it was sharply increasing in 2nd half of 2011).
To be accurate the big increase in trucking came in December, 2011 - and (if accurate) it was whopper. Also (if accurate) the decline in January 2012 was a whopper.
Housing Will NEVER Heal
Housing will never, ever heal. Well... not in my lifetime.
Anybody that buys a house is giving away their money... by extension, anybody that pays a single dime in mortgage or property taxes on a upside down mortgage is giving away money.
(Actually, there are exceptions. Locales with low-priced homes with land and low property taxes are probably very much worthwhile... as a percentage of the land mass, these are the majority... as a percentage of assessed or perceived value these are the extreme minority.)
The Banks do not want the properties back. Why would you continue to pay them?
I am not offering advice... I am asking a rhetorical question.
Most student loans will absolutely, positively default. Why should you be one of the few that pays your student loans back? (Again, that's a rhetorical question - not advice.) If I were in hock for a couple $100k in student debt I would emigrate by any means necessary... good luck trying to collect student loans internationally. Especially after I emigrated and changed my name and formed Cayman LLC's to hold my assets... (if I was able to rebuild my life). And if I was not able to rebuild? If I were a senior citizen or someone on Disability (5% of the adult population is on Disability... over 1/3 of them for "mental illness!! ROFL!!!!!) I would relocate to Panama as a Pensionado.
Life is short. Fighting lawyers and government agents and banks and student loans.... is a fool's errand. If you are in bad financial shape why would you cause your own death from stress? If you are a highly educated or trained professional or a millionaire with modest overhead... good for you! This does not apply. If you are struggling to pay the bills and wolves are at the door ready to tear you limb from limb... there should be kettle drums playing in the background this time tomorrow.
Don't want to learn Spanish? I would disappear into the black market... but property taxes, debts, interest... would all be yesterday's business.
So what's this got to do with housing?
Housing is dead. DEAD. And its dead despite the Federal Reserve (and the U.S. Treasury) throwing everything they had at it. At some point they will stop shooting... if not, they will eventually shoot themselves. Oil is not going to let them off of the hook. It is over.
The U.S. economy is based on a fractional reserve banking ("FBR") system run as a cartel controlled by the Federal Reserve. FBR needs a functioning real estate market to work. We don't have a functioning real estate market. The vast majority of the total value of properties is on the coasts (The New York Metro region represents the biggest lie that statistics can provide. If you believe the reports there, housing is "only" down 25% there versus 35%+ for the rest of the nation. Here's the thing: New York has a huge inventory of defaulted homes that the banks are not foreclosing. When the sheer size of the problem catches on with the rest of the population, and given the size of the mortgages and the aggregate lost value of property there... along with the outrageous property taxes - KABOOM!) ... the very places where property taxes assure that real estate will NEVER come back. Not EVER.
(Think about it: Purchasing property in these regions is placing yourself on the hook for outrageous future pension liabilities. Why would any rational person do that to themselves? No doubt a very few will trade one set of local liabilities for another (be the lucky outlier that sells their home and buys another in the same neighborhood, for what ever reason). This is what appears to be happening in Metro New York. But as de-leveraging and de-financialization run their course the banking and finance industry will continue to contract and with it the incomes and jobs of that regions best paying industry. Who in their right mind would pay $1 Million for a home in Westchester County, NY with $40,000 per year in property taxes? $400k every 10 years to pay into a pension system that will most definitely default?)
The pension systems of the municipalities demand property taxes that the property owners cannot afford. Those pensions will default and those municipalities will cut deeply into services.... and Oil won't let them off the hook, either. Chindia is going to keep out-competing the West for the declining pool of exported Oil... the producing nations are going to continue to export less and less... yea, they will need food for Oil... not to worry... they will get it... and they will be on the winning end of that trade. Plenty of poor farmers around the world to trade with... it does not have to be the U.S. There is a lot more food, and a lot less Oil, and a lot fewer people in Saudi Arabia than in China or India... the Saudi's will get fed... and they will consume more and more of that Oil... until they can't.... but between here and there it won't matter a lick to you.
Does deflation win? Or do the Central Banks finally overwhelm deflation with deficit spending/printing/bond buying? I don't know. Does it really matter? It will be one or the other. And the timing? I have no exact idea... except that "timing" doesn't matter either. We are in "it" now. "It" is happening as we speak. A multi-millionaire professional probably won't even notice for another decade (or two). Most of those already broke and being chased by the wolves will not be able to advance their position relative to past expectations - and that's more than 3/4 of the population.
I have been noodling this pretty constantly since Staniford's post about stagnate Oil production for the past 5 or 6 years... Peak Oil is here. Total employment in the U.S. has not improved since 2000. But the demands on the working population to provide for the elderly, the retired government worker, the poor, the Disabled (Snicker), the military... has been growing exponentially... and Peak Oil is here... and I am repeating myself... but Peak Oil is here.
Peak Oil could not have shown up at a worse moment. Housing's disaster had little to nothing to do with Peak Oil, but the housing disaster will absolutely, positively be exacerbated (terribly) by Peak Oil. People are not stupid. When they see that people stay in their home for 4 years without paying the mortgage or property taxes... and then 5 years... and then 6.... then 10 years....
Say goodnight, Gracie.
"Good night, Gracie!"
Anybody that buys a house is giving away their money... by extension, anybody that pays a single dime in mortgage or property taxes on a upside down mortgage is giving away money.
(Actually, there are exceptions. Locales with low-priced homes with land and low property taxes are probably very much worthwhile... as a percentage of the land mass, these are the majority... as a percentage of assessed or perceived value these are the extreme minority.)
The Banks do not want the properties back. Why would you continue to pay them?
I am not offering advice... I am asking a rhetorical question.
Most student loans will absolutely, positively default. Why should you be one of the few that pays your student loans back? (Again, that's a rhetorical question - not advice.) If I were in hock for a couple $100k in student debt I would emigrate by any means necessary... good luck trying to collect student loans internationally. Especially after I emigrated and changed my name and formed Cayman LLC's to hold my assets... (if I was able to rebuild my life). And if I was not able to rebuild? If I were a senior citizen or someone on Disability (5% of the adult population is on Disability... over 1/3 of them for "mental illness!! ROFL!!!!!) I would relocate to Panama as a Pensionado.
Life is short. Fighting lawyers and government agents and banks and student loans.... is a fool's errand. If you are in bad financial shape why would you cause your own death from stress? If you are a highly educated or trained professional or a millionaire with modest overhead... good for you! This does not apply. If you are struggling to pay the bills and wolves are at the door ready to tear you limb from limb... there should be kettle drums playing in the background this time tomorrow.
Don't want to learn Spanish? I would disappear into the black market... but property taxes, debts, interest... would all be yesterday's business.
So what's this got to do with housing?
Housing is dead. DEAD. And its dead despite the Federal Reserve (and the U.S. Treasury) throwing everything they had at it. At some point they will stop shooting... if not, they will eventually shoot themselves. Oil is not going to let them off of the hook. It is over.
The U.S. economy is based on a fractional reserve banking ("FBR") system run as a cartel controlled by the Federal Reserve. FBR needs a functioning real estate market to work. We don't have a functioning real estate market. The vast majority of the total value of properties is on the coasts (The New York Metro region represents the biggest lie that statistics can provide. If you believe the reports there, housing is "only" down 25% there versus 35%+ for the rest of the nation. Here's the thing: New York has a huge inventory of defaulted homes that the banks are not foreclosing. When the sheer size of the problem catches on with the rest of the population, and given the size of the mortgages and the aggregate lost value of property there... along with the outrageous property taxes - KABOOM!) ... the very places where property taxes assure that real estate will NEVER come back. Not EVER.
(Think about it: Purchasing property in these regions is placing yourself on the hook for outrageous future pension liabilities. Why would any rational person do that to themselves? No doubt a very few will trade one set of local liabilities for another (be the lucky outlier that sells their home and buys another in the same neighborhood, for what ever reason). This is what appears to be happening in Metro New York. But as de-leveraging and de-financialization run their course the banking and finance industry will continue to contract and with it the incomes and jobs of that regions best paying industry. Who in their right mind would pay $1 Million for a home in Westchester County, NY with $40,000 per year in property taxes? $400k every 10 years to pay into a pension system that will most definitely default?)
The pension systems of the municipalities demand property taxes that the property owners cannot afford. Those pensions will default and those municipalities will cut deeply into services.... and Oil won't let them off the hook, either. Chindia is going to keep out-competing the West for the declining pool of exported Oil... the producing nations are going to continue to export less and less... yea, they will need food for Oil... not to worry... they will get it... and they will be on the winning end of that trade. Plenty of poor farmers around the world to trade with... it does not have to be the U.S. There is a lot more food, and a lot less Oil, and a lot fewer people in Saudi Arabia than in China or India... the Saudi's will get fed... and they will consume more and more of that Oil... until they can't.... but between here and there it won't matter a lick to you.
Does deflation win? Or do the Central Banks finally overwhelm deflation with deficit spending/printing/bond buying? I don't know. Does it really matter? It will be one or the other. And the timing? I have no exact idea... except that "timing" doesn't matter either. We are in "it" now. "It" is happening as we speak. A multi-millionaire professional probably won't even notice for another decade (or two). Most of those already broke and being chased by the wolves will not be able to advance their position relative to past expectations - and that's more than 3/4 of the population.
I have been noodling this pretty constantly since Staniford's post about stagnate Oil production for the past 5 or 6 years... Peak Oil is here. Total employment in the U.S. has not improved since 2000. But the demands on the working population to provide for the elderly, the retired government worker, the poor, the Disabled (Snicker), the military... has been growing exponentially... and Peak Oil is here... and I am repeating myself... but Peak Oil is here.
Peak Oil could not have shown up at a worse moment. Housing's disaster had little to nothing to do with Peak Oil, but the housing disaster will absolutely, positively be exacerbated (terribly) by Peak Oil. People are not stupid. When they see that people stay in their home for 4 years without paying the mortgage or property taxes... and then 5 years... and then 6.... then 10 years....
Say goodnight, Gracie.
"Good night, Gracie!"
Peak Trucking
The U.S. has likely seen "Peak Trucking". (Click the link for a nice graph of the "bumpy plateau" for American trucking.)
It would seem to me that with the advancements in computer processing over the past several decades that the watered down version of the "traveling salesman problem" that comes part and parcel to the shipping (trucking) industry has been improved mightily over the past several decades, and that most of the inefficiencies that existed prior to said improved technology have been wrung from the system. The low hanging fruit has already been picked.
It will be interesting to see how that market rations available trucking tonnage with each passing year of decreasing availability.
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67.2% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9 billion tons of freight in 2010. Motor carriers collected $563.4 billion, or 81.2% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.Said another way... trucking has inferior margins to the other modes of shipping (unless their profit margins are significantly better, and that is not the case), or costs the shipper more... which likely means that the shipper had no other choice... it then follows that "peak trucking" means "peak tonnage shipped".
It would seem to me that with the advancements in computer processing over the past several decades that the watered down version of the "traveling salesman problem" that comes part and parcel to the shipping (trucking) industry has been improved mightily over the past several decades, and that most of the inefficiencies that existed prior to said improved technology have been wrung from the system. The low hanging fruit has already been picked.
It will be interesting to see how that market rations available trucking tonnage with each passing year of decreasing availability.
Broke on $350,000 per year
I loved this article. Or hated it. Or maybe just empathized with the folks mentioned.
Most guys on Wall Street seem to know all of the (following) cool quotes from the movie "Fight Club". I knew these LONG before that 1999 movie. When I was reading the book, I called my older brother #3 several times to quote him stuff he has been saying since we were kids. Tyler Durden's got nothing on my brothers.
For most of my career I was one of the extremely-well-paid-universally-despised-Wall Street-foot-soldiers mentioned in the article. I can tell you from first hand experience that 99% of these folks are as hand to mouth as anybody else. New York City consumes ALL of the money you make, unless you make 8 or 9 figure bonuses year after year. A Martini at the Four Seasons is $40. A muffin and coffee is $9. A 2 bedroom apartment on 3rd and 64th (where I used to live) is $5000+ per month. A parking space is $500 per month. This is all after taxes... and taxes for a New Yorker consumes nearly half of their earnings.
What do you get for the privilege? Private school tuition of $35k per kid, a 60 hour work week, a bag for belly, and a spouse that resents the living snot out of you and who absolutely, positively WILL file for divorce once there is enough in the kitty.
Most guys just don't get this:
But the truth is:
This CAN be avoided, though. See, all you gotta do is gain some manual labor skills, buy a small farm outside of Nashville (these can be had for less than $200k... most of you Wall Street guys could pay cash for it right out of your 401k), have your wife work the garden, milk the cows, and raise the kids while you work an artisan craft during the off months, ranch and work the fields during on months, eschewing all but a single vehicle and homeschooling the kids. You will have plenty of fresh air and sunshine, and you will be in great shape. You will have Wednesdays and Sundays off, as well as half day on Saturday.
Just message me here... I will hook you up. To make the adjustment easier, keep repeating (brother #3 will tell you that this has been a family motto for generations) this Mantra:
And why? Because they've got a closet full of designer rags, a kitchen filled with stainless steel Braun mini-peemers, and nightstand draw filled with Viagra. When I worked at Bear Stearns I noticed a secret handshake. Rather than reach for your hand, the other guy would reach to your tie, turn it around and look to see who the designer was... and you call yourself a man? (I swear to freaking Moses.)
Most guys on Wall Street seem to know all of the (following) cool quotes from the movie "Fight Club". I knew these LONG before that 1999 movie. When I was reading the book, I called my older brother #3 several times to quote him stuff he has been saying since we were kids. Tyler Durden's got nothing on my brothers.
For most of my career I was one of the extremely-well-paid-universally-despised-Wall Street-foot-soldiers mentioned in the article. I can tell you from first hand experience that 99% of these folks are as hand to mouth as anybody else. New York City consumes ALL of the money you make, unless you make 8 or 9 figure bonuses year after year. A Martini at the Four Seasons is $40. A muffin and coffee is $9. A 2 bedroom apartment on 3rd and 64th (where I used to live) is $5000+ per month. A parking space is $500 per month. This is all after taxes... and taxes for a New Yorker consumes nearly half of their earnings.
What do you get for the privilege? Private school tuition of $35k per kid, a 60 hour work week, a bag for belly, and a spouse that resents the living snot out of you and who absolutely, positively WILL file for divorce once there is enough in the kitty.
Man, I see in fight club the strongest and smartest men who've ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see squandering. God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off. - from the movie, "Fight Club" (the book was far better and its on Kindle)It takes an unreal amount of courage to walk away from a life that everybody, since you were a little kid, has told you is the life to have if you can get it. Usually it is too late before you realize that your life has been a kind of Wile e Coyote trajectory - you wake up one day and you are 40. You have made a lot of money, but you don't actually have any. Your family is used to a certain "normal" way of living that you cannot change, but continuing this "normal" is as self-destructive as any addiction... and any attempt by you to make any changes what-so-ever will bring you to ruin in divorce court.
Most guys just don't get this:
You're not your job. You're not how much money you have in the bank. You're not the car you drive. You're not the contents of your wallet. You're not your fucking khakis. You're the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world.Until its just too f***ing late.
But the truth is:
The things you own end up owning you.Well, that and those you love... they wind up owning you, too.
This CAN be avoided, though. See, all you gotta do is gain some manual labor skills, buy a small farm outside of Nashville (these can be had for less than $200k... most of you Wall Street guys could pay cash for it right out of your 401k), have your wife work the garden, milk the cows, and raise the kids while you work an artisan craft during the off months, ranch and work the fields during on months, eschewing all but a single vehicle and homeschooling the kids. You will have plenty of fresh air and sunshine, and you will be in great shape. You will have Wednesdays and Sundays off, as well as half day on Saturday.
Just message me here... I will hook you up. To make the adjustment easier, keep repeating (brother #3 will tell you that this has been a family motto for generations) this Mantra:
You are not special. You are not a beautiful or unique snowflake. You're the same decaying organic matter as everything else.We all know I have little to worry about... not one of these guys is going to actually do anything about their lives... they are going to keep on keeping on as neutered adults with what little Testosterone levels they have left until their prostate hardens into a lumpy walnut... all the while talking to themselves... and the conversation sounds something like this:
Tyler Durden: We're consumers. We are by-products of a lifestyle obsession. Murder, crime, poverty, these things don't concern me. What concerns me are celebrity magazines, television with 500 channels, some guy's name on my underwear. Rogaine, Viagra, Olestra.
Narrator: Martha Stewart.
Tyler Durden: Fuck Martha Stewart. Martha's polishing the brass on the Titanic. It's all going down, man. So fuck off with your sofa units and Strinne green stripe patterns.
And why? Because they've got a closet full of designer rags, a kitchen filled with stainless steel Braun mini-peemers, and nightstand draw filled with Viagra. When I worked at Bear Stearns I noticed a secret handshake. Rather than reach for your hand, the other guy would reach to your tie, turn it around and look to see who the designer was... and you call yourself a man? (I swear to freaking Moses.)
Tyler Durden: Do you know what a duvet is?This is what working on Wall Street does to a human being, but:
Narrator: It's a comforter...
Tyler Durden: It's a blanket. Just a blanket. Now why do guys like you and me know what a duvet is? Is this essential to our survival, in the hunter-gatherer sense of the word? No. What are we then?
Narrator: ...Consumers?
Tyler Durden: Right. We are consumers. We're the bi-products of a lifestyle obsession.
Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken.There is still time... to be you.
The Energy Debate (Patzek/Hofmeister)
I watched this debate with interest.
Nothing we have not heard before... but skip to about 45.33 minutes into the video, and listen to Hofmeister's Federal power grab necessary to "solve" the problem.
I am just sick listening to that.
Thanks John, we don't have enough trouble with our Federal Government as it is... we need to give them ANOTHER agency and more authority so that they can "help" us not inconvenience The Powers That Be.
Now Drop f%$^^ing dead.
Nothing we have not heard before... but skip to about 45.33 minutes into the video, and listen to Hofmeister's Federal power grab necessary to "solve" the problem.
I am just sick listening to that.
Thanks John, we don't have enough trouble with our Federal Government as it is... we need to give them ANOTHER agency and more authority so that they can "help" us not inconvenience The Powers That Be.
Now Drop f%$^^ing dead.
Crime and (Tax) Punishment
Violent crime has been declining, in absolute terms, in the U.S. for over 20 years. I emphasize "absolute terms" because that this is happening during a time when the population increased by 25%. Ergo, the crime rate has been plunging.
Given that, WTF is up with the staggering increase in police budgets? Armored personal carriers? SWAT teams? Canine units? Helicopters, GPS tracking, drones... what's next? Submarines?
The police will try to argue that it was something they did, some policing tactic or strategy... and of course it was no such thing (feel free to correct me with data). Technology forced changes in behavior, not the police.
The police will argue that we need to keep beefing up those budgets to protect "property"... or until ALL violence is ended... ROFL!!
Ever report a property crime to the police? In no particular hurry an officer might come to you and issue you a police report... often, they won't even do that. You will have to go to the police station to fill out a report that is really a formality for your insurance company. When they do come, there is no investigation or finger print collection (unless it is burglary, et al).
If anybody did a time/motion study of "law enforcement" they will find that essentially all of the payroll resources are spent on traffic issues. Not that this is not important, it is, but the increase in police budgets is overwhelming and in many localities far too heavy handed. A perfect example is the use of 911 for domestic arguments absent violence as the number 1 source of all 911 calls. (What's that all about?)
The federal government is using grants to local law enforcement as a means to stimulate the economy. The unintended consequences of that politically expedient strategy should be plain to see.
-----------------------------------------
For the homesteader in you:
This is a Surge brand belly milker milking my Jersey, Naomi. A milk cow is the most economically and nutritionally productive component on a family farm/homestead. After hand milking, a milker is just an unbelievable convenience:
I just hung these hams today after 4 weeks in salt. Because they had been completely skinned, 4 weeks should be enough. With skin on, 6 to 7 weeks is more like it. After the salt, just wash them good with a hose and hang for a couple days "naked" (if it is still cold enough that flies are not apparent) and then cover with a cheese cloth bag (or you can make a bag out of an old t-shirt or pillow case) and leave for 4 to 6 more weeks in a dry, cool, dark place. My neighbor likes to leave his for 1 year... I don't have the patience:
Given that, WTF is up with the staggering increase in police budgets? Armored personal carriers? SWAT teams? Canine units? Helicopters, GPS tracking, drones... what's next? Submarines?
The police will try to argue that it was something they did, some policing tactic or strategy... and of course it was no such thing (feel free to correct me with data). Technology forced changes in behavior, not the police.
The police will argue that we need to keep beefing up those budgets to protect "property"... or until ALL violence is ended... ROFL!!
Ever report a property crime to the police? In no particular hurry an officer might come to you and issue you a police report... often, they won't even do that. You will have to go to the police station to fill out a report that is really a formality for your insurance company. When they do come, there is no investigation or finger print collection (unless it is burglary, et al).
If anybody did a time/motion study of "law enforcement" they will find that essentially all of the payroll resources are spent on traffic issues. Not that this is not important, it is, but the increase in police budgets is overwhelming and in many localities far too heavy handed. A perfect example is the use of 911 for domestic arguments absent violence as the number 1 source of all 911 calls. (What's that all about?)
The federal government is using grants to local law enforcement as a means to stimulate the economy. The unintended consequences of that politically expedient strategy should be plain to see.
-----------------------------------------
For the homesteader in you:
This is a Surge brand belly milker milking my Jersey, Naomi. A milk cow is the most economically and nutritionally productive component on a family farm/homestead. After hand milking, a milker is just an unbelievable convenience:
I just hung these hams today after 4 weeks in salt. Because they had been completely skinned, 4 weeks should be enough. With skin on, 6 to 7 weeks is more like it. After the salt, just wash them good with a hose and hang for a couple days "naked" (if it is still cold enough that flies are not apparent) and then cover with a cheese cloth bag (or you can make a bag out of an old t-shirt or pillow case) and leave for 4 to 6 more weeks in a dry, cool, dark place. My neighbor likes to leave his for 1 year... I don't have the patience:
The U.S. (and much of the West) Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank initiated a temporary "zero interest rate policy" ("ZIRP") nearly 4 years ago. Last quarter, the Fed announced that they would keep rates low until 2014. Not to worry, in 2013 the Fed will announce ZIRP until 2015, and so on, and so on, for now on.
The Fed will never tighten monetary policy again (well, not in my working lifetime).
In dropping rates to essentially zero, and twisting and shouting (and printing and buying) on the long end of the curve, the Fed has destroyed the returns of savers. Not just dear old Mom & Dad... every pension in the system buys bonds - and they are getting zippity-do-dah for a return. But the Federal Government's fiscal policy of deficit spending over a TRILLION$ per year was done in concert with the Fed's ZIRP, and now they are stuck. If the Fed tries to raise rates, the stock market will get killed, and if the long end of the bond curve responds upward the Fed will have caused the U.S. Treasury into cardiac arrest. The Government cannot afford a 200 basis point increase in interest rates on the debt they have. For the sake of argument, et us pretend that all of the U.S. debt was floating rate... On $15 Trillion, a 200 basis point increase would mean a $300 PER YEAR increase in the deficit for interest alone - and that's on top of 2011's $454B in interest expense.
Got that?
Now that's not how it would work out... because the U.S. government's debt is NOT floating rate... what would happen is the bond market would get killed, the stock market would get killed, the banking system would get killed, the pension system gets killed either way...
So the Fed ain't tightening monetary policy, ever again. And that is not hyperbole. Because the Fed does not survive the Keynesian endgame. Somebody else, the market, the central planners, the whoever... might tighten monetary policy... but it won't be the Fed.
The Fed will never tighten monetary policy again (well, not in my working lifetime).
In dropping rates to essentially zero, and twisting and shouting (and printing and buying) on the long end of the curve, the Fed has destroyed the returns of savers. Not just dear old Mom & Dad... every pension in the system buys bonds - and they are getting zippity-do-dah for a return. But the Federal Government's fiscal policy of deficit spending over a TRILLION$ per year was done in concert with the Fed's ZIRP, and now they are stuck. If the Fed tries to raise rates, the stock market will get killed, and if the long end of the bond curve responds upward the Fed will have caused the U.S. Treasury into cardiac arrest. The Government cannot afford a 200 basis point increase in interest rates on the debt they have. For the sake of argument, et us pretend that all of the U.S. debt was floating rate... On $15 Trillion, a 200 basis point increase would mean a $300 PER YEAR increase in the deficit for interest alone - and that's on top of 2011's $454B in interest expense.
Got that?
Now that's not how it would work out... because the U.S. government's debt is NOT floating rate... what would happen is the bond market would get killed, the stock market would get killed, the banking system would get killed, the pension system gets killed either way...
So the Fed ain't tightening monetary policy, ever again. And that is not hyperbole. Because the Fed does not survive the Keynesian endgame. Somebody else, the market, the central planners, the whoever... might tighten monetary policy... but it won't be the Fed.
Oil Prices
Oil prices, even WTI, set a record for any January - EVER. Unless something drastic happens, average Oil prices for February, even in the pipeline screwed up WTI, will set a new record. While WTI is $108, Brent is over $124 per barrel... in Euro's, the price of Oil has never been higher.
It would appear, given Oil and Gold, that the world's central banks have been able to overwhelm deflation in credit... though the bond market has not confirmed that.
Peak Oil is about to be back in the media spotlight... after all, if 2008 was just a bubble.... bubbles do not reflate that fast.
It would appear, given Oil and Gold, that the world's central banks have been able to overwhelm deflation in credit... though the bond market has not confirmed that.
Peak Oil is about to be back in the media spotlight... after all, if 2008 was just a bubble.... bubbles do not reflate that fast.
When "Education" became a Liability
The education/student loan time bomb I have mentioned over the years is coming closer and closer to actual detonation.
A fellow I met here on the blog sent me this link today.
I am BEYOND thrilled that this is coming into the national discussion. Paying $85,000 (for a state university) or $200,000 (for a private university) for a degree that could have been had for free at the public library and the internet... or for a couple hundred $$ in used books.
Counseling? My 88 year old mother would do it for free... and far better than the kids coming out of school.
Early childhood education? Are you freaking kidding me? "Teaching" kindergarten does not require 4 years of training. 4 years of medication, maybe... but not 4 years of overpriced "training".
You paid $80,000 to $200,000 for "training" in Social Work? Art Appreciation? Women's Studies? WTF!!!!!!????? Are you rich? If you not, you have rocks in your head.
Anybody really think that half of the private colleges in America will even be in business in 20 years? The same thing that happened to the banks and mortgage companies during the unwind of the housing bubble will happen to these schools during the unwind of the "education" (snicker) bubble. Then, to add insult to injury, the American energy situation is going to drive stakes through the heart of whatever it was you planned to do for a living once you get finished being taken, sorry... "educated"... (if your folks have $200k to blow on a history degree, ask them for a $200k house and go get a library card. Not needing to make the mortgage every month will leave you lots of time to indulge in intellectual pursuits).
Why, in the 21st Century, does anyone need to travel anywhere to hear a lecture? To submit papers, take tests, exchange ideas? Really?!.. The cost/benefit analysis has failed the customer/student. So much of this needs to be "thought anew", but don't count on any new thinking coming out of the university-industrial complex.
Better yet, think for yourself. If you are going to pay $100k plus for an education, make you sure you get some training in marketable skills. Math, Science, Engineering, Accounting, Technology, etc... you know, the STEM fields. Wasting time (economically speaking) is ok for the wealthy, but if you are going to college to "move the peanut forward" (economically speaking) wasting precious time and resources on feel good affirmation will only dig the hole you are trying to climb out of a little deeper.
A fellow I met here on the blog sent me this link today.
I am BEYOND thrilled that this is coming into the national discussion. Paying $85,000 (for a state university) or $200,000 (for a private university) for a degree that could have been had for free at the public library and the internet... or for a couple hundred $$ in used books.
Counseling? My 88 year old mother would do it for free... and far better than the kids coming out of school.
Early childhood education? Are you freaking kidding me? "Teaching" kindergarten does not require 4 years of training. 4 years of medication, maybe... but not 4 years of overpriced "training".
You paid $80,000 to $200,000 for "training" in Social Work? Art Appreciation? Women's Studies? WTF!!!!!!????? Are you rich? If you not, you have rocks in your head.
Anybody really think that half of the private colleges in America will even be in business in 20 years? The same thing that happened to the banks and mortgage companies during the unwind of the housing bubble will happen to these schools during the unwind of the "education" (snicker) bubble. Then, to add insult to injury, the American energy situation is going to drive stakes through the heart of whatever it was you planned to do for a living once you get finished being taken, sorry... "educated"... (if your folks have $200k to blow on a history degree, ask them for a $200k house and go get a library card. Not needing to make the mortgage every month will leave you lots of time to indulge in intellectual pursuits).
Why, in the 21st Century, does anyone need to travel anywhere to hear a lecture? To submit papers, take tests, exchange ideas? Really?!.. The cost/benefit analysis has failed the customer/student. So much of this needs to be "thought anew", but don't count on any new thinking coming out of the university-industrial complex.
Better yet, think for yourself. If you are going to pay $100k plus for an education, make you sure you get some training in marketable skills. Math, Science, Engineering, Accounting, Technology, etc... you know, the STEM fields. Wasting time (economically speaking) is ok for the wealthy, but if you are going to college to "move the peanut forward" (economically speaking) wasting precious time and resources on feel good affirmation will only dig the hole you are trying to climb out of a little deeper.
Peak Oil Revisited
I remember when I became "Peak Oil" aware. It was 2004, and somehow I had come into possession of Ken Deffeyes book "Hubbert's Peak" (actually, it was a few years before that... but I don't think it was called "Peak Oil, then). A couple years later he followed with "Beyond Oil". I began telling the story to clients and prospects at my stock brokerage business. Some guys started a blog called "The Oil Drum". I started a blog called "Mentatt" (my buddy, the Mad Scientist thought it was slang for "Meant That"... actually, it came from Frank Herbert's sci-fi classic "Dune), which I later renamed The American Energy Crisis.
Back then, "Peaknics" were enthused about the West's coming economic disaster. It is ever so much fun to brow beat the establishment while you still have a job, equity in your home, and a career with a future. 5 years of economic stagnation, lousy employment prospects, and flat world wide oil production (and declining oil consumption in the OECD)... and its just not that much fun anymore. The "Peaknics" faded. "The Tea Party" and "Occupy" took over... though neither one really knew what was at the bottom, or the root cause, of their anger: Oil (and credit).
In 2005 you were smart. A thinker with a vision. Now? Gil Scot-Heron's "The Revolution will not be Televised" comes to mind. For the already established that did not lose their jobs or businesses, so far this has been no big deal... for the graduating classes (high school, college, grad) since 2008, real estate agents, stock brokers and investment bankers, banks, mortgage companies, retail mall operators, etc... this has been an unmitigated disaster (and granted... this has been more about credit contraction than Oil... but that train is rolling down the tracks).
And you ain't seen nothing yet.
The first 5 years of this "adjustment period" were merely a pain in the @$$ in the OECD and industrialized West. The next 10 or 15 years or so is where the rubber meets the road. So far the decline rate for Oil consumption in the OECD has only been 2% per year or so... what will the economy look like with a 4/6/8/10% annual decline rate?
2% is slow-drip-water-torture. 10% is light-your-hair-on-fire-and-run-around-the-room torture.
At some point, Oil imports into the OECD are going to see those kinds of declines... and not that far off.
And blaming politicians for not "doing something" about this? Pointless. Energy descent is going to happen... "conservation" (lol!!) is going to happen (one way or another)... and the economic consequences are going to happen... to Democrats and Republicans alike. I wouldn't put much stock in the folks in government being much help to The People. They will be too busy seeing to themselves.
-------------------------------------------
Our farm seems to be working out well. Here are some ideas for any homesteaders out there:
This was our fall and winter chicken run. It is about 1/8 of an acre. This is more than enough for a family of 5 for sweet corn (not corn flour corn... we grow that on the other side of the farm), beans, and squash (which we grow together). As you can see, the chickens have eaten every blade of grass down to the dirt, and then scratched up all of the roots. They have cleared the ground of weed seeds, too. Their manure is too hot (in Nitrogen) for most stuff, but not corn. Corn LOVES chicken manure. We plant the beens and squash about 4 to 6 weeks after the corn. This is my 4th year moving the chickens around to where I plan to plant my sweet corn.
180 degrees and up the hill is our "goat run". This is "reclaimed" front yard, about 1 acre. This area can support about 8 goats 7 months per year. In winter I feed them round-bale hay (about 1 per month - $22) and a little corn (for about 5 months). We eat a few goats per year and sell a few. They cover their feed expense, and save me from having to mow this area. Besides, I love to eat cabrito/chevon (goat meat) and soup.
In the winter, I keep the horses in this corral. It is about an acre in size. They eat 3 round bales per month (1500 pounds each) for 5 months. 10 to 12 tons of horse manure (the urine is the primary nitrogen source) on an acre leaves the ground plenty fertile. The horses get moved to the pastures and I plant the lower half (as it slopes I want to avoid erosion. I throw down some clover seed on the top half to hold the soil and keep the bees happy) of the corral with corn/pumpkins/peas/something or other. This year it will be field corn for corn flour.
Here in Tennessee garlic and onions are planted in the fall. Garlic did very well this year, onions were not great (but enough). Just in case, I planted some onion sets today. When I harvest the garlic in mid-Spring, the bed will be planted with sweet bell peppers. The beds to the right are covered in clear plastic because they are "baking" too-fresh manure for this spring. If you keep it wet and covered the manure will compost completely in about 2 or 3 months, rather than a full year.
Back then, "Peaknics" were enthused about the West's coming economic disaster. It is ever so much fun to brow beat the establishment while you still have a job, equity in your home, and a career with a future. 5 years of economic stagnation, lousy employment prospects, and flat world wide oil production (and declining oil consumption in the OECD)... and its just not that much fun anymore. The "Peaknics" faded. "The Tea Party" and "Occupy" took over... though neither one really knew what was at the bottom, or the root cause, of their anger: Oil (and credit).
In 2005 you were smart. A thinker with a vision. Now? Gil Scot-Heron's "The Revolution will not be Televised" comes to mind. For the already established that did not lose their jobs or businesses, so far this has been no big deal... for the graduating classes (high school, college, grad) since 2008, real estate agents, stock brokers and investment bankers, banks, mortgage companies, retail mall operators, etc... this has been an unmitigated disaster (and granted... this has been more about credit contraction than Oil... but that train is rolling down the tracks).
And you ain't seen nothing yet.
The first 5 years of this "adjustment period" were merely a pain in the @$$ in the OECD and industrialized West. The next 10 or 15 years or so is where the rubber meets the road. So far the decline rate for Oil consumption in the OECD has only been 2% per year or so... what will the economy look like with a 4/6/8/10% annual decline rate?
2% is slow-drip-water-torture. 10% is light-your-hair-on-fire-and-run-around-the-room torture.
At some point, Oil imports into the OECD are going to see those kinds of declines... and not that far off.
And blaming politicians for not "doing something" about this? Pointless. Energy descent is going to happen... "conservation" (lol!!) is going to happen (one way or another)... and the economic consequences are going to happen... to Democrats and Republicans alike. I wouldn't put much stock in the folks in government being much help to The People. They will be too busy seeing to themselves.
-------------------------------------------
Our farm seems to be working out well. Here are some ideas for any homesteaders out there:
This was our fall and winter chicken run. It is about 1/8 of an acre. This is more than enough for a family of 5 for sweet corn (not corn flour corn... we grow that on the other side of the farm), beans, and squash (which we grow together). As you can see, the chickens have eaten every blade of grass down to the dirt, and then scratched up all of the roots. They have cleared the ground of weed seeds, too. Their manure is too hot (in Nitrogen) for most stuff, but not corn. Corn LOVES chicken manure. We plant the beens and squash about 4 to 6 weeks after the corn. This is my 4th year moving the chickens around to where I plan to plant my sweet corn.
180 degrees and up the hill is our "goat run". This is "reclaimed" front yard, about 1 acre. This area can support about 8 goats 7 months per year. In winter I feed them round-bale hay (about 1 per month - $22) and a little corn (for about 5 months). We eat a few goats per year and sell a few. They cover their feed expense, and save me from having to mow this area. Besides, I love to eat cabrito/chevon (goat meat) and soup.
In the winter, I keep the horses in this corral. It is about an acre in size. They eat 3 round bales per month (1500 pounds each) for 5 months. 10 to 12 tons of horse manure (the urine is the primary nitrogen source) on an acre leaves the ground plenty fertile. The horses get moved to the pastures and I plant the lower half (as it slopes I want to avoid erosion. I throw down some clover seed on the top half to hold the soil and keep the bees happy) of the corral with corn/pumpkins/peas/something or other. This year it will be field corn for corn flour.
Here in Tennessee garlic and onions are planted in the fall. Garlic did very well this year, onions were not great (but enough). Just in case, I planted some onion sets today. When I harvest the garlic in mid-Spring, the bed will be planted with sweet bell peppers. The beds to the right are covered in clear plastic because they are "baking" too-fresh manure for this spring. If you keep it wet and covered the manure will compost completely in about 2 or 3 months, rather than a full year.
This is the winter hog-yard, between 1/3 and 1/2 acre. They clear the area of everything, then I move them to the back and plant this with potatoes, both sweet and white. Also melons, pumpkins and sunflowers, and peas. Whatever we don't harvest won't go to waste... I turn the hogs back in here in the late fall. They find whatever potatoes we missed (and its a bunch), and are delighted to cleanup rotten mellons & pumpkins right down to the roots. We slaughter 3 hogs per year, and make our own sausage (breakfast and Italian) and bacon. (My kids thought we were kidding when we told them the stuff they got at IHOP was "bacon" on a recent trip to Florida).
We will plant over an acre of "garden" beside the raised bed vegetable garden. Gardening is the easy part... preserving it all is a lot of work and not as much fun. We dry some, freeze some, and can some.
Iran
I have been noodling the Iran/Israel thing. I cannot envision that any Israeli prime minister would be willing to chance a nuclear armed Iran. I read with interest an article today in which the writer asserted that no Israeli prime minister wants to go down in history as the guy under whose watch Iran became a nuclear power. I think a valid point. Ergo, I think Israel will, at some point in the relatively near future, attack Iran. After all, what would be the point of Israel, "a safe place for Jews", to exist if it were to allow a neighbor sworn to destroy it a nuclear weapon? Rather than "a safe place for Jews" Israel would become a concentration point for their annihilation. This cannot be acceptable to Israel or the Diaspora.
I do not think the U.S. will be involved... but I do think that the Israelis know that the U.S. cannot afford to have an Israeli attack result in Gulf shipping to be shut down or for the Israelis to suffer a strategic defeat. So, even though I don't think BHO wants anything to do with an Iran confrontation before the election... I think the Israeli's know they hold the cards. The U.S. can't stop Israel, and the U.S. can't let Israel fail. When Israel acts, the U.S. will be forced to act.
I am not talking about what I want to happen or hope will happen... I am talking about what I think is most likely TO happen (I said "most likely"- not "definitely"). I also have no idea about the soundness of this adventure, the odds of success, the costs, or the unintended consequences. My sense is that much of this is unknowable, but it seems that the chances for an interruption in Oil supplies out of the region are very high. And I think that this is going to happen.
We are all in the Risk Management business now.
I do not think the U.S. will be involved... but I do think that the Israelis know that the U.S. cannot afford to have an Israeli attack result in Gulf shipping to be shut down or for the Israelis to suffer a strategic defeat. So, even though I don't think BHO wants anything to do with an Iran confrontation before the election... I think the Israeli's know they hold the cards. The U.S. can't stop Israel, and the U.S. can't let Israel fail. When Israel acts, the U.S. will be forced to act.
I am not talking about what I want to happen or hope will happen... I am talking about what I think is most likely TO happen (I said "most likely"- not "definitely"). I also have no idea about the soundness of this adventure, the odds of success, the costs, or the unintended consequences. My sense is that much of this is unknowable, but it seems that the chances for an interruption in Oil supplies out of the region are very high. And I think that this is going to happen.
We are all in the Risk Management business now.
Backups
While this winter was extremely mild, last year was a pain in the backside... 2 ice storms knocked out electric and heat for several days each time.
We have half a dozen kerosene lamps like this:
And a single 10,000 BTU kerosene radiant space heater kept the entire house more than comfortable (its a small house, and this is Tennessee - not New England.
For the lamps, get wick holders sized for 1" to 1.5" wicks. The wider the wick, the more light (and heat... don't underestimate the heat generated by those lamps. One lamp would keep a large bedroom very comfortable). I estimate that 1 gallon of Kerosene will provide 70 to 100 hours of light. We have 6 lamps and another 6 hurricane lanterns for outside and barn use (these have .75" wicks... the widest I have found. Get the big reservoir lanterns by Dietz. Don't bother with the cheap .375" wick jobbies you see in the camping section of the big box stores... not worth a good fart).
Candles just don't cut it.
We also have Coleman propane lanterns and 10' conversion hoses so we can hook them to 5 gallon propane tanks. The Amish folks I buy my livestock feed from use these in their house. They have a home built lamp table that has the propane tank built into it and the table is on wheels so it can be rolled to where the light is needed. I prefer the kerosene lamps... but they are not as bright as the propane lamps.
I keep 2, 55 gallon drums filled with Kerosene on hand, plus 4, 5 gallon containers. The drums are plastic, not metal. I do not worry about expansion and contraction caused by temperature swings when they are full. Also, metal will corrode from the outside, and one day your kerosene will be all over the floor of your storage area. We rotate but always keep a full inventory. Here in Tennessee and with a small house, that would get us through a heating season and a year's lighting. We learned a hard lesson during Hurricane Katrina... Tennessee is that the end of the pipeline, and our county literally ran out of fuel for a couple weeks with diesel being the biggest problem. I also installed an additional 1,000 gallon propane tank that just sits there as backup, and a fuel tank to hold some diesel for the tractor (and truck in an emergency).
We have half a dozen kerosene lamps like this:
And a single 10,000 BTU kerosene radiant space heater kept the entire house more than comfortable (its a small house, and this is Tennessee - not New England.
For the lamps, get wick holders sized for 1" to 1.5" wicks. The wider the wick, the more light (and heat... don't underestimate the heat generated by those lamps. One lamp would keep a large bedroom very comfortable). I estimate that 1 gallon of Kerosene will provide 70 to 100 hours of light. We have 6 lamps and another 6 hurricane lanterns for outside and barn use (these have .75" wicks... the widest I have found. Get the big reservoir lanterns by Dietz. Don't bother with the cheap .375" wick jobbies you see in the camping section of the big box stores... not worth a good fart).
Candles just don't cut it.
We also have Coleman propane lanterns and 10' conversion hoses so we can hook them to 5 gallon propane tanks. The Amish folks I buy my livestock feed from use these in their house. They have a home built lamp table that has the propane tank built into it and the table is on wheels so it can be rolled to where the light is needed. I prefer the kerosene lamps... but they are not as bright as the propane lamps.
I keep 2, 55 gallon drums filled with Kerosene on hand, plus 4, 5 gallon containers. The drums are plastic, not metal. I do not worry about expansion and contraction caused by temperature swings when they are full. Also, metal will corrode from the outside, and one day your kerosene will be all over the floor of your storage area. We rotate but always keep a full inventory. Here in Tennessee and with a small house, that would get us through a heating season and a year's lighting. We learned a hard lesson during Hurricane Katrina... Tennessee is that the end of the pipeline, and our county literally ran out of fuel for a couple weeks with diesel being the biggest problem. I also installed an additional 1,000 gallon propane tank that just sits there as backup, and a fuel tank to hold some diesel for the tractor (and truck in an emergency).
"For Women Under 30, Most Births Occur Outside Marriage"
"For Women Under 30, Most Births Occur Outside Marriage".
A fascinating statistic, even if the only thing really and truly accurate about the article IS the title.
Still, it is useful for discussion purposes... especially when taking on the Childless-Elitist-Liberals that are exiting the World, stage left, for their own poor reproductive history.
This, too, is disingenuous: "Among mothers of all ages, a majority — 59 percent in 2009 — are married when they have children." If just 10% of women who have a child out of wedlock before 30 subsequently marry and have a child or children... see why there are 3 kinds of lies? Mine, yours, and statistics?
Here's where it gets good:
And back to the 1/3 of college grads leaving their childbearing years childless... this is likely not by choice... fertility goes down like a rock in a pond for women in their early 30's... right about the time these women have established a career after under grad and grad school. In fact, if one wanted their family line to end with their daughters, there is no better strategy (short of murder) than to send them off to college.
Sorry, Frank... marriage is fast becoming an obsolete good, not a luxury good, and the only guys who are willing to step into the maw are those with a bride that can make a living.
Wow! You don't say! This comes squarely under the "No Shit, Sherlock" rubric. But who cares about children? This is ALL about empowering women!
Reluctant? If men are not BEATEN to the alter, they do not go. And even then, the bride ain't going to be a bride unless she has an education and can make a living. All men knows what happens to men in divorce court when the wife has no marketable skills. Courts don't impoverish them... they impoverish the man. All markets react rationally over time... and the market for grooms reacted rationally.
And boy was ol' Danny Boy Moynihan right...
A fascinating statistic, even if the only thing really and truly accurate about the article IS the title.
Still, it is useful for discussion purposes... especially when taking on the Childless-Elitist-Liberals that are exiting the World, stage left, for their own poor reproductive history.
Once largely limited to poor women and minorities, motherhood without marriage has settled deeply into middle America. The fastest growth in the last two decades has occurred among white women in their 20s who have some college education but no four-year degree, according to Child Trends, a Washington research group that analyzed government data.Well, the big lie here is the lie of omission. Roughly 1/3 of women college graduates leave their childbearing years childless, and that unfortunate statistic amplifies the relative incidence in the non-college grad truncate. You see, "fastest growth" was not in absolute births, but fastest growing percentage... well, if the other (college grad) truncate (there are only 2 here.... college grad women and non-college grad women) birthrate declines... the other truncate could quite possibly have had fewer births than their historical average, and still be the "faster growing". Of course, that's was not explained nor even mentioned... after all this is the NYT and they are playing to their audience - highly educated, but for the most part innumerate, middle aged and just plain aged Liberals with either 0 or 1 child (the binary ode of Liberalism, and the equation that assures their end in the very near future) (and when I say these people are "innumerate" I am not trying to be insulting nor am I alleging these people cannot run a calculator or even perform some simple algebra... they can. What they do not seem to be able to do is make the connections between the numbers... if they could, they would have seen the silliness of the assertions and conclusions (and confusions) of this article from a mile away).
Among mothers of all ages, a majority — 59 percent in 2009 — are married when they have children. But the surge of births outside marriage among younger women — nearly two-thirds of children in the United States are born to mothers under 30 — is both a symbol of the transforming family and a hint of coming generational change.While it is fair to say that a generational change is under way, I don't think the article emphasizes the critical point - 2/3 of of children are born to mother's under 30 - and the data point they really don't want to stir up: That 90% of children are born to women 34 and younger. What is up with the 30 cut off? 34 is far better for our purposes here, because the births after that are the 3rd and 4th births of mommy-mommies, or the first births of the petri-dish mommies... and they are only 10% of births.
This, too, is disingenuous: "Among mothers of all ages, a majority — 59 percent in 2009 — are married when they have children." If just 10% of women who have a child out of wedlock before 30 subsequently marry and have a child or children... see why there are 3 kinds of lies? Mine, yours, and statistics?
Here's where it gets good:
One group still largely resists the trend: college graduates, who overwhelmingly marry before having children. That is turning family structure into a new class divide, with the economic and social rewards of marriage increasingly reserved for people with the most education.Yes, college graduates overwhelming marry before having their only child... when they have children (child), which is only 2/3 of the time (it is over 90% for the other truncate)... and here is where it gets rich... Educated men have eschewed marrying women that cannot make a living on their own because of the penalties they have suffered at the hands of our outrageous divorce laws. A male professional making $300k per year might have taken on a woman of lower social and educational standing in generations past... no more. These men won't even marry a woman with student loans! Nope, there are a great many fewer suckers out there for the divorce bar to sink its teeth into... educated men now prefer to put off marriage, marrying only other professionals/educated women that can make a living... and even then doing so only with the benefit of a 95 page pre-nuptial agreement... and the great unintended consequence of this is that the women in the non-grad truncate, who still wish to have children, now have even less leverage than they had when marriage was "unfair" to women prior to the Feminist lobby. But they still have children.
And back to the 1/3 of college grads leaving their childbearing years childless... this is likely not by choice... fertility goes down like a rock in a pond for women in their early 30's... right about the time these women have established a career after under grad and grad school. In fact, if one wanted their family line to end with their daughters, there is no better strategy (short of murder) than to send them off to college.
“Marriage has become a luxury good,” said Frank Furstenberg, a sociologist at the University of Pennsylvania.
Sorry, Frank... marriage is fast becoming an obsolete good, not a luxury good, and the only guys who are willing to step into the maw are those with a bride that can make a living.
The shift is affecting children’s lives. Researchers have consistently found that children born outside marriage face elevated risks of falling into poverty, failing in school or suffering emotional and behavioral problems.
Wow! You don't say! This comes squarely under the "No Shit, Sherlock" rubric. But who cares about children? This is ALL about empowering women!
The forces rearranging the family are as diverse as globalization and the pill. Liberal analysts argue that shrinking paychecks have thinned the ranks of marriageable men, while conservatives often say that the sexual revolution reduced the incentive to wed and that safety net programs discourage marriage.Liberal analysts argued that? Where, exactly? No doubt some Feminazi suffering from Borderline Personality Disorder (but that's from the department of redundancy department, isn't it?). I would have had a field day with that assertion. Much as I despise the Right, they got it goin' on here.
Here in Lorain, a blue-collar town west of Cleveland where the decline of the married two-parent family has been especially steep, dozens of interviews with young parents suggest that both sides have a point.
Over the past generation, Lorain lost most of two steel mills, a shipyard and a Ford factory, diminishing the supply of jobs that let blue-collar workers raise middle-class families. More women went to work, making marriage less of a financial necessity for them. Living together became routine, and single motherhood lost the stigma that once sent couples rushing to the altar. Women here often describe marriage as a sign of having arrived rather than a way to get there.
Meanwhile, children happen.
Amber Strader, 27, was in an on-and-off relationship with a clerk at Sears a few years ago when she found herself pregnant. A former nursing student who now tends bar, Ms. Strader said her boyfriend was so dependent that she had to buy his cigarettes. Marrying him never entered her mind. “It was like living with another kid,” she said.
When a second child, with a new boyfriend, followed three years later — her birth control failed, she said — her boyfriend, a part-time house painter, was reluctant to wed.Other than the "Meanwhile, children happen" thing this was pretty much a waste of copy space and designed to take the reader's mind of the silly assertion above that Liberal's made about thinning paychecks... except one thing. The last line, about how her boy-friend was reluctant to wed.
Reluctant? If men are not BEATEN to the alter, they do not go. And even then, the bride ain't going to be a bride unless she has an education and can make a living. All men knows what happens to men in divorce court when the wife has no marketable skills. Courts don't impoverish them... they impoverish the man. All markets react rationally over time... and the market for grooms reacted rationally.
Ms. Strader likes the idea of marriage; she keeps her parents’ wedding photo on her kitchen wall and says her boyfriend is a good father. But for now marriage is beyond her reach.Doesn't work out anyway? Really? Why would it? Absent a pre-nup, women married to men of wealth have overwhelming incentive to get paid and not fulfill obligations - there simply is no other gig like this in the entire, freaking world. And if the groom ain't making enough? No reason to stay with this bum, he let me down. Almost 75% of divorce filings are files by women because of the disastrous incentives of our peculiar family laws.
“I’d like to do it, but I just don’t see it happening right now,” she said. “Most of my friends say it’s just a piece of paper, and it doesn’t work out anyway.”
The recent rise in single motherhood has set off few alarms, unlike in past eras. When Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then a top Labor Department official and later a United States senator from New York, reported in 1965 that a quarter of black children were born outside marriage — and warned of a “tangle of pathology” — he set off a bitter debate.
And boy was ol' Danny Boy Moynihan right...
A Whimper?
Peak Oil consumption appears to be here for the West. Jeffrey Brown should take a bow (while I cue the theme from "The Godfather").
That this has happened before any measurable decline in the production (looks like 6 years of flat production to me) in Crude & Condensate (the stuff we use for transportation fuels) leaves me wondering: What happens when production decline takes place?
A rate of change of 2 or 3% is what we have been experiencing... what might 6% to 8% feel like? Somewhat different, I should imagine. Even the present 2% or 3% will compromise the Financial System over time.
I had this to say in my November 28, 2007 Post:
An Apocalypse NOT!
I get a decent amount of email from the “doom and gloom” folks asking me when I think the “collapse” takes place. Collapse? What collapse?
The decline in oil availability will be a slow, grinding process (in my opinion) that will not fit nicely in a 2 hour movie, 3 minute pop hit, or 15 second political sound bite mindset. I hope I can disabuse the doomers that visit here that they need some kind of bomb shelter. Although I fully appreciate your point of view, my commentary is directed toward how one might direct the investments that they have worked so hard for. I sincerely believe that the U.S. oil supply situation will have profound effects on our financial and real estate markets and currency over the next 5 years, but I do not think this will happen on a Tuesday afternoon. Nor do I believe that we will descend into anarchy. Are not resource wars (starting with Iraq), and the prospect of hyperinflation, and stagnant or declining GDP enough? Well, at least I hope they are.
My issue is this: Why should you work so hard only to pour your investment dollars into a leaking bucket? You would have been better off spending those shekels on vacations, expensive wine, and song. (Actually, that sort of appeals to me.) Some might find that pecuniary, but those that do probably did not spend a career doggedly pursuing some level of financial independence. Actually, I am quite sure that on some level the tied dye set is HOPING for a collapse. Teach those yuppie pricks a lesson.
I know that a lot of the peak oil blogsphere is filled with disaster scenarios, but I sincerely doubt this is the most likely outcome. That argument that we will experience immanent agricultural disaster due to declining energy inputs is just not that likely. The markets are efficient enough to redistribute those inputs away from Suzie-Cuzie’s trip to the mall and into the farmer’s tank and fertilizer bin. Yes, food is going to get much more expensive, and yes, this will fall disproportionately on the poor. But the aggregate AMOUNT of food available to Americans is not the problem, but rather how to pay for assistance to the poor.
This is not to say that our agricultural exports won’t decline and harm others. I sadly think that is a rather likely outcome. Those of you that have been following my blog know that I have great concerns in this area. Wheat and corn production will become an increasingly expensive proposition, and that will negatively affect aggregate crop production, just look at wheat inventories, and in turn available exports and domestic meat production, but the lesson of history is that people will be “incentivized” to produce some of their own food. As an avid gardener, I can tell you that a simple kitchen garden can overwhelm your ability to consume all that is produced at harvest time, the surplus of which can certainly be preserved. It will not be necessary to produce ALL of our own food (at least not for 20 or 30 years, all bets are off at that point in the oil production curve) just enough to bring the marginal scarcity food cost down to an affordable level.
I get email from one dour fellow who tells me that we have lost all of the knowledge to do this. What knowledge, gardening? Get a grip, and join my garden club. You would be impressed with what these folks know.
As my friend FireAngel from theoildrum.com likes to point out, if India can feed over 1 billion people with less arable land and far less fossil fuel imports, North America certainly can feed its population.
There is also some slack for the economy in the wasteful way in which we use oil. FireAngel recently pointed out that driving around in circles does not increase GDP.
If it were going to be Armageddon, what would be the point of investing? Better to blow it all on a trip around the world.
No, the Apocalypse won’t be arriving anytime soon, but a paradigm shift is, in my opinion, underway as I write this. In this paradigm shift, there will be winners and there will be losers. Not much different than our current reality. It is the INSISTING that things be a certain way that will get you into trouble. Flexibility and adaptability will go a long way in the environment I foresee.
No, it won’t be business as usual. We are likely to be a whole lot less mobile, live in smaller homes, and consume less frilly BS. We won’t be commuting as far, be more involved in our communities and our children’s lives, and we even might all have a new hobby – gardening. But I ask you: Is that really Armageddon?
End of Post
Clearly, my estimate (in other posts) that total availability of Oil to the U.S. in 2020 would be 8 to 12 million barrels per day in 2020 looks a bit aggressive... perhaps 12.5 to 15.5 million bpd? Then again, maybe Iraq comes in in Spades and things are not so dour... or perhaps not.
This may feel like a whimper to some of us... but I think that that is completely subjective as it appears to me that a "collapse" has already begun for some... for a fortunate minority, said "collapse" won't be happening in their lifetimes. Life is not fair.
Given the attack on the system by The Tea Party and the Occupy folks, my bet is that the current system of rationing fuel solely by price will become untenable/unacceptable. It will be hard to justify allowing Fat Cats fuel for their private jet while people freeze in Northern Maine. I am curious to see how that works out... and it might convulse for a while, but in the end I think (hope?) the beast starves to death.
More soon.
That this has happened before any measurable decline in the production (looks like 6 years of flat production to me) in Crude & Condensate (the stuff we use for transportation fuels) leaves me wondering: What happens when production decline takes place?
A rate of change of 2 or 3% is what we have been experiencing... what might 6% to 8% feel like? Somewhat different, I should imagine. Even the present 2% or 3% will compromise the Financial System over time.
I had this to say in my November 28, 2007 Post:
An Apocalypse NOT!
I get a decent amount of email from the “doom and gloom” folks asking me when I think the “collapse” takes place. Collapse? What collapse?
The decline in oil availability will be a slow, grinding process (in my opinion) that will not fit nicely in a 2 hour movie, 3 minute pop hit, or 15 second political sound bite mindset. I hope I can disabuse the doomers that visit here that they need some kind of bomb shelter. Although I fully appreciate your point of view, my commentary is directed toward how one might direct the investments that they have worked so hard for. I sincerely believe that the U.S. oil supply situation will have profound effects on our financial and real estate markets and currency over the next 5 years, but I do not think this will happen on a Tuesday afternoon. Nor do I believe that we will descend into anarchy. Are not resource wars (starting with Iraq), and the prospect of hyperinflation, and stagnant or declining GDP enough? Well, at least I hope they are.
My issue is this: Why should you work so hard only to pour your investment dollars into a leaking bucket? You would have been better off spending those shekels on vacations, expensive wine, and song. (Actually, that sort of appeals to me.) Some might find that pecuniary, but those that do probably did not spend a career doggedly pursuing some level of financial independence. Actually, I am quite sure that on some level the tied dye set is HOPING for a collapse. Teach those yuppie pricks a lesson.
I know that a lot of the peak oil blogsphere is filled with disaster scenarios, but I sincerely doubt this is the most likely outcome. That argument that we will experience immanent agricultural disaster due to declining energy inputs is just not that likely. The markets are efficient enough to redistribute those inputs away from Suzie-Cuzie’s trip to the mall and into the farmer’s tank and fertilizer bin. Yes, food is going to get much more expensive, and yes, this will fall disproportionately on the poor. But the aggregate AMOUNT of food available to Americans is not the problem, but rather how to pay for assistance to the poor.
This is not to say that our agricultural exports won’t decline and harm others. I sadly think that is a rather likely outcome. Those of you that have been following my blog know that I have great concerns in this area. Wheat and corn production will become an increasingly expensive proposition, and that will negatively affect aggregate crop production, just look at wheat inventories, and in turn available exports and domestic meat production, but the lesson of history is that people will be “incentivized” to produce some of their own food. As an avid gardener, I can tell you that a simple kitchen garden can overwhelm your ability to consume all that is produced at harvest time, the surplus of which can certainly be preserved. It will not be necessary to produce ALL of our own food (at least not for 20 or 30 years, all bets are off at that point in the oil production curve) just enough to bring the marginal scarcity food cost down to an affordable level.
I get email from one dour fellow who tells me that we have lost all of the knowledge to do this. What knowledge, gardening? Get a grip, and join my garden club. You would be impressed with what these folks know.
As my friend FireAngel from theoildrum.com likes to point out, if India can feed over 1 billion people with less arable land and far less fossil fuel imports, North America certainly can feed its population.
There is also some slack for the economy in the wasteful way in which we use oil. FireAngel recently pointed out that driving around in circles does not increase GDP.
If it were going to be Armageddon, what would be the point of investing? Better to blow it all on a trip around the world.
No, the Apocalypse won’t be arriving anytime soon, but a paradigm shift is, in my opinion, underway as I write this. In this paradigm shift, there will be winners and there will be losers. Not much different than our current reality. It is the INSISTING that things be a certain way that will get you into trouble. Flexibility and adaptability will go a long way in the environment I foresee.
No, it won’t be business as usual. We are likely to be a whole lot less mobile, live in smaller homes, and consume less frilly BS. We won’t be commuting as far, be more involved in our communities and our children’s lives, and we even might all have a new hobby – gardening. But I ask you: Is that really Armageddon?
End of Post
Clearly, my estimate (in other posts) that total availability of Oil to the U.S. in 2020 would be 8 to 12 million barrels per day in 2020 looks a bit aggressive... perhaps 12.5 to 15.5 million bpd? Then again, maybe Iraq comes in in Spades and things are not so dour... or perhaps not.
This may feel like a whimper to some of us... but I think that that is completely subjective as it appears to me that a "collapse" has already begun for some... for a fortunate minority, said "collapse" won't be happening in their lifetimes. Life is not fair.
Given the attack on the system by The Tea Party and the Occupy folks, my bet is that the current system of rationing fuel solely by price will become untenable/unacceptable. It will be hard to justify allowing Fat Cats fuel for their private jet while people freeze in Northern Maine. I am curious to see how that works out... and it might convulse for a while, but in the end I think (hope?) the beast starves to death.
More soon.
Peak Oil is Here for the OECD
Peak Oil consumption appears to have hit the OECD nations, with consumption down 10% over the past 5 years.
Still, the decline rate is somewhat better than many expected. Ethanol in the U.S., along with increased domestic production, softened the blow somewhat in that country. Europe, for a number of reasons, did not experience a decline, point to point, during the period.
Ethanol is a one off and the increased Oil production both domestically and in Canada are not going to grow at the same level... so if the rate of change remains the same, in 2017 U.S. domestic consumption could very well be below 16 million barrels per day, down 25% in 10 years, peak to trough (and it could be more and it could be less).
That's bad... but it could be a great deal worse. The U.S. trucking model for the distribution of goods will have to get a great deal more efficient and expensive... but at least it will still be functioning. The volume/tonnage will be lower obviously, but the necessities will still get through. There is a point though where that simply won't be the case. The U.S. is a BIG place, and big rig trucking is a simple equation - 4 miles per gallon. 1 less gallon of diesel supply = 4 fewer truck miles.
Of course there will be adjustments. Homes in the Northeast, for instance, can be converted to Natural Gas heating from heating oil, and heating oil is close enough to diesel... but that number just isn't that big. No, the adjustments will come in the form of fewer consumer and capital goods being trucked around. Perhaps railroads or waterway shipping will make up for some of it.
But that doesn't stop the inexorable march of depletion. It seems that whatever we thought was normal in 2007 won't be so normal in 2017, 2022, or 2027, which is only 15 years away. Somewhere in the middle of those years, the folks selling us the oil in the first place may decide that it is not in their best interest to keep selling that oil as fast as possible; or perhaps production declines accelerate... the point is is that it appears Peak Oil consumption has hit the U.S. and there isn't much we can do about it. We must make personal, policy, and economic adjustments. Some will make better decisions than others, and the government's capacities will likely be much diminished... for what its worth, I view that outcome as very, very good news.
Still, the decline rate is somewhat better than many expected. Ethanol in the U.S., along with increased domestic production, softened the blow somewhat in that country. Europe, for a number of reasons, did not experience a decline, point to point, during the period.
Ethanol is a one off and the increased Oil production both domestically and in Canada are not going to grow at the same level... so if the rate of change remains the same, in 2017 U.S. domestic consumption could very well be below 16 million barrels per day, down 25% in 10 years, peak to trough (and it could be more and it could be less).
That's bad... but it could be a great deal worse. The U.S. trucking model for the distribution of goods will have to get a great deal more efficient and expensive... but at least it will still be functioning. The volume/tonnage will be lower obviously, but the necessities will still get through. There is a point though where that simply won't be the case. The U.S. is a BIG place, and big rig trucking is a simple equation - 4 miles per gallon. 1 less gallon of diesel supply = 4 fewer truck miles.
Of course there will be adjustments. Homes in the Northeast, for instance, can be converted to Natural Gas heating from heating oil, and heating oil is close enough to diesel... but that number just isn't that big. No, the adjustments will come in the form of fewer consumer and capital goods being trucked around. Perhaps railroads or waterway shipping will make up for some of it.
But that doesn't stop the inexorable march of depletion. It seems that whatever we thought was normal in 2007 won't be so normal in 2017, 2022, or 2027, which is only 15 years away. Somewhere in the middle of those years, the folks selling us the oil in the first place may decide that it is not in their best interest to keep selling that oil as fast as possible; or perhaps production declines accelerate... the point is is that it appears Peak Oil consumption has hit the U.S. and there isn't much we can do about it. We must make personal, policy, and economic adjustments. Some will make better decisions than others, and the government's capacities will likely be much diminished... for what its worth, I view that outcome as very, very good news.
Shred Soon
Read this jackass and his self-seving Bull Sh#! I will strip to bark off this and shred it shortly, but I am tired and pillow is calling...
The Good News
While I may bitch loudly and often, I see a great deal of promise for America's future. I have come around to thinking that it is precisely the overdone silliness of the Central Planning jackasses that will eventually restore our freedoms as Americans.
Ever watch the movie "BraveHeart"? There is a line in that movie that goes something like this... The "Babe" says to the "Hero" - "Peace is made in such ways..." to which our hero replies "Slaves are made in such ways".
Many Americans seem to have sussed out the things that have enslaved them: Student loans, mortgage debt, political policies at all levels, ridiculous family law, competitive materialism... young people seem to be rejecting most of this, with the exception of student loans, with which many are still stifling their lives... but you can really see it in the housing market. While the Fed/Bernake/Goldman and the rest of the resident anti-Christ are busy trying to reflate that market it appears that they have run out of suckers... and that's a good thing!
The increase in total credit engineered by the Fed and TPTB over the past 40 years has not worked out for The People, if I may make use of understatement. Perhaps unwinding that circumstance will.
Things have changed. Nominally, the U.S. economy has "grown". Anecdotally, I doubt much of that growth. Immigration and fertility are down, and in the past the biggest component of economic "growth" was population growth. This is a critical issue... while this circumstance will throw a wrench into future tax assumptions and demolish our ability to fund the military and social programs I see this as a very, very good thing. "Slaves are made in such ways"... as is obesity, depression, addiction... America's people, for the most part were not unsatisfied with the "direction" the country was taking until the 1970's (with the glaring exception of the really, really stupid war mongering of Korea and Viet Nam). What brought the dissatisfaction? I assert that the addiction to Oil, T.V., and the market's return to labor equilibrium with the rest of the world. While the boomers and X'ers might bemoan whatever it is they bemoan... the circumstances they viewed as "normal" (when there is truly no such thing) are not the normal of young people today... and these people will eventually get on with it... and these young people were not born into families from America's Left, who forgot what happens to those that do not replace themselves... they die out... won't be long now... bye-bye...
Gasoline availability per capita is down well over 14% since 2005 (please see my previous post for California gasoline consumption and then add in the 1.1% increase per year in population per year. While the U.S. Census Bureau believes that the U.S. population will hit 420mm in 2050, I think those folks need to take their fingers out of their nose...) and the price reflects the market's role in rationing that declining resource by price.
U.S. grain production has tilted heavily to corn due to ethanol's now firm entrenchment in the liquid transportation fuel market... But we have run out of corn acres, or at least I assert that we have... why else would corn farm land have quadrupled in the past decade? (Here's the wheat production chart.) The U.S. now consumes nearly 1/2 of its corn crop in ethanol production... it is extremely unlikely that ethanol can claim much more, unless Americans prefer transport fuels to meat, milk, and eggs... and the price of food stuffs relative to The People's ability to afford them is already quite high, even if, as a percentage of income, food costs are near historical lows... the big change during the past 40 years? The percentage of FICA and property taxes of total income confiscated was just too much of John Q. Public's income for him to be able to feed his kids AND his parents (via Social Security and Medicare). If you doubt this... please explain the "temporary" payroll tax cut... which will never be undone.
So what is the "Good News"?
The Good News is this: The People can no longer fund the government's power grab of The People's freedoms... We cannot fund the government's military, security, and social program apparatus... this is a beautiful thing, though the media will spend every waking minute convincing you otherwise. Time will heal these wounds (with you or without you), and we, The People, can get back to making our own decisions about the way we want to live our lives - accepting both the rewards and consequences that come from being a "Free People".... what does it mean to be "free"? We have seen the Left's and the Right's version...
For our purposes here... Free to succeed and fail (however you define that). Free to educate our children as we see fit (and this will be helped by being forced to think for ourselves, rather than being told what to think by the NEA and the $200k Liberal Arts colleges... $1 Trillion in student loans, with over half in default/deferment gives you a pretty good idea of the negative cost/benefit analysis there). Free to engage in contracts of our own making (rather than the one-size-fits-the-local-divorce-attornies-just-right Bull Sh#! we have now). Free to accept the freedom of others. (“If you are not free to choose wrongly and irresponsibly, you are not free at all” - Jacob Hornberger.) Free from a majority that rejects the Rights of the political minority (rather than the silly way we tend to identify "minority" now) so enumerated in the Bill of Rights. Free to reject the materialism and consumerism that gave the government the opportunity to enslave us in the first place.
Recapturing these freedoms without violence will only be had by starving the beast... Oil and the popping of the credit bubble have set that in motion. The incredible coincidence of the decline in the fertility rate makes a resource disaster far less likely... especially when matched with a (so far) modest rate of change in the decline in Oil supply.
(Please see the 5th graph down at my friend Stuart Staniford's excellent blog. Crude and condensate, the stuff we make transportation fuels out of, has seen no growth in production in spite of large price incentives. While it is true that there is a long capital investment cycle... it ain't this long. Of course, there has been a large increase in NGPL's... that's nice for the petro-chemical industry, but it doesn't do a thing for transportation fuel... well, except for propane vehicles... and ethanol's 2 million bpd might, MIGHT, have a million bpd left to go... and then again, it might not. Peak Oil is here... and even if the inevitable decline in production is not... that decline in availability is here for the U.S.)
In the final analysis on Oil supplies - and hence the U.S. economy - its all about the rate of change. As for the politics and economics of it all... Political upheavals sometimes lead to very positive outcomes, and in this regard I am rather more optimistic for America.
(Please see the 5th graph down at my friend Stuart Staniford's excellent blog. Crude and condensate, the stuff we make transportation fuels out of, has seen no growth in production in spite of large price incentives. While it is true that there is a long capital investment cycle... it ain't this long. Of course, there has been a large increase in NGPL's... that's nice for the petro-chemical industry, but it doesn't do a thing for transportation fuel... well, except for propane vehicles... and ethanol's 2 million bpd might, MIGHT, have a million bpd left to go... and then again, it might not. Peak Oil is here... and even if the inevitable decline in production is not... that decline in availability is here for the U.S.)
In the final analysis on Oil supplies - and hence the U.S. economy - its all about the rate of change. As for the politics and economics of it all... Political upheavals sometimes lead to very positive outcomes, and in this regard I am rather more optimistic for America.
California Gasoline Consumption
There are a lot of posts out on the Web about gasoline consumption in Q4, 2011. The data from the Government regarding Vehicle Miles Traveled, and California's gasoline tax receipts are probably better, more accurate, and more truthful.
Quarterly Peak Consumption was Q3 2005 - 4,067,963,214. Q3 2011 gasoline consumption - 3,727,070,122, which was slightly lower than the 2009 Q3 in the midst of the Great Recession.
2005 was the peak year - 15,937,855,020. 2011 consumption will certainly come in lower than 2010's consumption of 14,868,892,787.
Keep in mind that U.S. gasoline "supply" increased by nearly 10% with the development of corn ethanol. Said another way, absent ethanol, the supply/consumption of gasoline decline would have been closer to (just under) 4% than (just under) 2%. But ethanol was a one off... there is no 880,000 bpd increase in ethanol available to the market over the next 6 or 7 years as there was in the previous 6 or 7. That does not assure an increase in the decline rate... but it certainly increases the likelihood.
If Peak Oil has not hit the world, it sure seems to have hit California's gasoline supply... and California is home to 1 out of every 8 Americans... likely a large enough sampling to be applied to the U.S. as a whole.
This is not the only thing wrong with the U.S. (and the other industrialized nations) economy... but its a biggee.
Quarterly Peak Consumption was Q3 2005 - 4,067,963,214. Q3 2011 gasoline consumption - 3,727,070,122, which was slightly lower than the 2009 Q3 in the midst of the Great Recession.
2005 was the peak year - 15,937,855,020. 2011 consumption will certainly come in lower than 2010's consumption of 14,868,892,787.
Keep in mind that U.S. gasoline "supply" increased by nearly 10% with the development of corn ethanol. Said another way, absent ethanol, the supply/consumption of gasoline decline would have been closer to (just under) 4% than (just under) 2%. But ethanol was a one off... there is no 880,000 bpd increase in ethanol available to the market over the next 6 or 7 years as there was in the previous 6 or 7. That does not assure an increase in the decline rate... but it certainly increases the likelihood.
If Peak Oil has not hit the world, it sure seems to have hit California's gasoline supply... and California is home to 1 out of every 8 Americans... likely a large enough sampling to be applied to the U.S. as a whole.
This is not the only thing wrong with the U.S. (and the other industrialized nations) economy... but its a biggee.
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